Maccabi Petah Tikva
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Hapoel Beer Sheva
The model makes it 18% Maccabi Petah Tikva, 21% draw, 61% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 5.56, 4.76 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.16, Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.51.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Hapoel Beer Sheva are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maccabi Petah Tikva are 9th on 6 points from 6 games; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 4th on 13 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Maccabi Haifa.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Ironi Tiberias.
- Last 6 meetings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2025, ended Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- L1-2Maccabi Haifa17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026
- L2-4Hapoel Jerusalem19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Beitar Jerusalem15 September 2026
- L1-2Ironi Tiberias5 September 2026
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- W2-0away to Ironi Tiberias10 October 2026
- W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Petah Tikva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- 25 January 2025Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 20 October 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–5 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 30 May 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Hapoel Beer ShevaState Cup
- 17 February 2024Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 16 December 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–4 Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'al
- 2 March 2022Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaState Cup
Leading scorers: Maccabi Petah Tikva and Hapoel Beer Sheva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
GoalsAssists
- J. Cortés21
- S. Owusu21
- L. Hazan21
Hapoel Beer Sheva
GoalsAssists
- A. Ganah20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Maccabi Petah Tikva carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.65 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 2.51 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Petah Tikva rate 0.59 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.83 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Petah Tikva a 0% chance of the title and Hapoel Beer Sheva 12.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva against 2.51 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Maccabi Petah Tikva's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.24 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Petah Tikva at home · Hapoel Beer Sheva away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Petah Tikva 6, Hapoel Beer Sheva 6.
Hapoel Beer Sheva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Maccabi Petah Tikva have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 11%
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 19%
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
- at Maccabi Netanya5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- vs OFI5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.