Maccabi Netanya
vs
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Hapoel Jerusalem
The model makes it 47% Maccabi Netanya, 25% draw, 28% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Maccabi Netanya 1.85, Hapoel Jerusalem 1.29.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Maccabi Netanya: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maccabi Netanya are 8th on 6 points from 6 games; Hapoel Jerusalem are 7th on 7 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Netanya have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
- Hapoel Jerusalem have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Maccabi Haifa.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Netanya 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Maccabi Netanya 3–1 Hapoel Jerusalem.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Netanya at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Maccabi Netanya
- W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Tel Aviv19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Ramat Gan14 September 2026
- D1-1Hapoel Haifa7 September 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
- L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026
- W4-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Netanya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Netanya conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Jerusalem had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Netanya
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Hapoel Jerusalem
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Jerusalem
- 25 July 2026Maccabi Netanya 3–1 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
- 4 May 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 9 January 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 27 September 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 1–2 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
- 9 August 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–0 Maccabi NetanyaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 8 February 2025Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Netanya and Hapoel Jerusalem
Maccabi Netanya
GoalsAssists
- Matheus Davó40
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maccabi Netanya carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.24 for Hapoel Jerusalem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Maccabi Netanya and 1.29 for Hapoel Jerusalem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Netanya rate 0.62 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Jerusalem rate 0.55 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hapoel Jerusalem, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Netanya the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Maccabi Netanya against 1.29 for Hapoel Jerusalem. Maccabi Netanya's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.88 for Hapoel Jerusalem.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maccabi Netanya at home · Hapoel Jerusalem away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Netanya 6, Hapoel Jerusalem 6.
Maccabi Netanya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hapoel Jerusalem have let in 2 there.
Hapoel Jerusalem score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Maccabi Netanya have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Netanya
- at Maccabi Haifa7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 22%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 25%
- at Hapoel Tel Aviv1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 21%
- vs Maccabi Petah Tikva5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 49%
Hapoel Jerusalem
- vs Bnei Sakhnin7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
- at Beitar Jerusalem28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 18%
- vs Hapoel Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.