Hapoel Ramat Gan
vs
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–2 Maccabi Tel Aviv
The model makes it 15% Hapoel Ramat Gan, 20% draw, 65% Maccabi Tel Aviv — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Ramat Gan 1.03, Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.60.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Maccabi Tel Aviv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hapoel Ramat Gan are 13th on 3 points from 6 games; Maccabi Tel Aviv are top on 16 points from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Hapoel Ramat Gan have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hapoel Haifa.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Bnei Sakhnin.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 65% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Ramat Gan
- W2-0away to Hapoel Haifa17 October 2026
- L0-4Beitar Jerusalem11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bnei Sakhnin19 September 2026
- W2-0Maccabi Netanya14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Hapoel Tel Aviv7 September 2026
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Netanya19 September 2026
- W4-1Hapoel Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 65% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Hapoel Ramat Gan and Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Ramat Gan
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz51
- E. Sokler21
- O. Davida20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Hapoel Ramat Gan carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.74 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Hapoel Ramat Gan and 2.60 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Ramat Gan rate 0.50 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 1.02 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hapoel Ramat Gan a 0% chance of the title and Maccabi Tel Aviv 65.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hapoel Ramat Gan against 2.60 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Hapoel Ramat Gan's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.3 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Ramat Gan at home · Maccabi Tel Aviv away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Ramat Gan 6, Maccabi Tel Aviv 6.
Hapoel Ramat Gan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Maccabi Tel Aviv have let in 2 there.
Maccabi Tel Aviv score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Hapoel Ramat Gan have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Ramat Gan
- at Hapoel Petah Tikva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Ironi Tiberias1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 29%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- vs Maccabi Petah Tikva7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 74%
- vs Hapoel Petah Tikva28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 68%
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.