Bnei Sakhnin
vs
Ironi Tiberias
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Bnei Sakhnin 0–1 Ironi Tiberias
The model makes it 30% Bnei Sakhnin, 32% draw, 38% Ironi Tiberias — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bnei Sakhnin 0.93, Ironi Tiberias 1.13.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Ironi Tiberias: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bnei Sakhnin are 10th on 5 points from 6 games; Ironi Tiberias are bottom on 1 point from 6 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Bnei Sakhnin are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Hapoel Petah Tikva.
- Ironi Tiberias are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Hapoel Tel Aviv.
- Last 6 meetings: Bnei Sakhnin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Ironi Tiberias 2–1 Bnei Sakhnin.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Tiberias at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias
Bnei Sakhnin
- W2-0Hapoel Petah Tikva17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Tel Aviv10 October 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Ramat Gan19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hapoel Haifa14 September 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
Ironi Tiberias
- L0-1away to Hapoel Tel Aviv17 October 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Maccabi Haifa19 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Jerusalem15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bnei Sakhnin had two goals or fewer.
- Ironi Tiberias conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ironi Tiberias failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bnei Sakhnin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
Ironi Tiberias
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias
- 25 July 2026Ironi Tiberias 2–1 Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al
- 18 April 2026Bnei Sakhnin 0–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 24 January 2026Ironi Tiberias 1–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 18 October 2025Bnei Sakhnin 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 27 July 2025Bnei Sakhnin 1–1 Ironi TiberiasToto Cup Ligat Al
- 29 March 2025Bnei Sakhnin 2–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bnei Sakhnin carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.31 for Ironi Tiberias. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.13 for Ironi Tiberias. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bnei Sakhnin rate 0.36 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ironi Tiberias rate 0.55 and 1.63.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bnei Sakhnin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ironi Tiberias the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Bnei Sakhnin against 1.13 for Ironi Tiberias. Bnei Sakhnin's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.63 for Ironi Tiberias.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bnei Sakhnin at home · Ironi Tiberias away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Bnei Sakhnin 6, Ironi Tiberias 6.
Ironi Tiberias score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Bnei Sakhnin have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bnei Sakhnin
- at Hapoel Jerusalem7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 29%
- vs Maccabi Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 19%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 14%
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 17%
Ironi Tiberias
- vs Beitar Jerusalem7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 25%
- at Hapoel Haifa28 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
- vs Hapoel Ramat Gan1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 43%
- at Maccabi Tel Aviv5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.