Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 42% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 28% draw, 30% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.67, Dinamo Zagreb 1.22.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hapoel Beer Sheva wins, grey are draws, red are Dinamo Zagreb wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- W2-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva13 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Tel Aviv7 September 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan29 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
- W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Dinamo Zagreb in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Ligat Ha'al | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · HNL
Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and Dinamo Zagreb
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- M. Kna'an1 goals1 assists
- A. Ganah1 goals
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo7 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Beer Sheva carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.47 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.22 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.73 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.66 and 1.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 1.22 for Dinamo Zagreb. Hapoel Beer Sheva's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.41 for Dinamo Zagreb.