16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Olympiakos Piraeus, 28% draw, 24% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos Piraeus97%Draw3%Jagiellonia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽K. Szmytassist: N. Prelec
29'
Norbert Wojtuszek
Onyemaechi Bruno
38'
⚽A. Gonzalezassist: P. Retsos
43'
🔁B. Onyemaechiout: N. Tiknizyan
46'
46'
🔁T. Romanczukout: E. Kozlowski
54'
Guilherme Montóia
🔁A. Gonzalezout: R. Yaremchuk
62'
63'
🔁A. Klyngeout: H. Finndell
63'
🔁J. Imazout: Y. Sylla
75'
🔁N. Prelecout: S. Lozano
Santiago Hezze
76'
🔁Chiquinhoout: G. Puerta
77'
🔁S. Hezzeout: L. Bailey
77'
80'
Bernardo Vital
🔁M. Saliakasout: M. Pedersen
82'
⚽R. Yaremchukassist: R. Freuler
84'
87'
🔁R. Conceicaoout: J. Agbonifo

Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia

58%Possession42%
25Shots4
6On target3
13Corners0
2.53xG0.52

Goals against chances

Olympiakos Piraeus2 from 2.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Jagiellonia1 from 0.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. OrtegaG
  • 2M. SaliakasD
  • 45P. RetsosD
  • 5L. PirolaD
  • 70B. OnyemaechiD
  • 32S. HezzeM
  • 19R. FreulerM
  • 20Jota SilvaM
  • 22ChiquinhoM
  • 10G. MartinsM
  • 34A. GonzalezF
Substitutes
  • 61G. KouraklisG
  • 91D. StournarasG
  • 71N. TiknizyanD
  • 6D. CarmoD
  • 27M. PedersenD
  • 4Z. SmajlovicD
  • 15G. PuertaM
  • 77C. FilisM
  • 21T. BakoulasM
Coach: Imanol Alguacil
Jagiellonia 4-3-3
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 5B. VitalD
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 23G. MontoiaD
  • 11J. ImazM
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 27R. ConceicaoF
  • 99N. PrelecF
  • 7K. SzmytF
Substitutes
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 67J. RabiczkoG
  • 3D. StojinovicD
  • 20B. WdowikD
  • 61B. KrasiewiczD
  • 14H. FinndellM
  • 21S. LozanoM
  • 85E. KozlowskiM
  • 32A. CirkovicF
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia

Olympiakos Piraeus

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1OFI12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Asteras Tripolis30 August 2026
  • W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to NEC Nijmegen11 August 2026

Jagiellonia

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
  • W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
  • W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Iberia 199927 August 2026

What these results say

  • Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
  • Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Jagiellonia had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Olympiakos Piraeus330041+39
27Jagiellonia310246-23

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and Jagiellonia

Olympiakos Piraeus

GoalsAssists

  • A. González20

Jagiellonia

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Jagiellonia 2–1. The model had made a win for Olympiakos Piraeus its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: K. Szmyt 20' for Jagiellonia, A. Gonzalez 43' for Olympiakos Piraeus, R. Yaremchuk 84' for Olympiakos Piraeus. On expected goals it finished 2.53–0.52.

How the call on Olympiakos Piraeus v Jagiellonia has moved

First published on 2 Sep at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Olympiakos Piraeus's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Olympiakos Piraeus win48%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Jagiellonia win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.