Omonia Nicosia
vs
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Omonia Nicosia 0–1 Celta Vigo
The model makes it 31% Omonia Nicosia, 32% draw, 37% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 1.00, Celta Vigo 1.18.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Omonia Nicosia wins, grey are draws, red are Celta Vigo wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
- W4-2St. Truiden27 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Truiden20 August 2026
- W1-0Lincoln Red Imps FC13 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC6 August 2026
Celta Vigo
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Omonia Nicosia and Celta Vigo in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celta Vigo | La Liga | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Omonia Nicosia has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · La Liga
The two sides
Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.71 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.18 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Nicosia rate 0.55 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 0.84 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta Vigo the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 1.18 for Celta Vigo. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.12 for Celta Vigo.