Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Omonia Nicosia, 31% draw, 37% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40FabianoG
- 93J. DuverneD
- 5S. CoulibalyD
- 37L. SatkaD
- 29J. BalkovecD
- 74P. AndreouM
- 14M. MaricM
- 11Costa EwandroM
- 22M. TankovicM
- 7J. MontnorM
- 99L. DionyF
- 78P. MichailG
- 1T. KaminskiG
- 27S. SimicD
- 82A. Christou
- 77L. NegoD
- 90C. KonstantinidisD
- 92P. ChristoforouM
- 20L. BrouwersM
- 17F. TanaseM
- 13I. RaduG
- 20J. RodriguezD
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 3M. AlonsoD
- 15A. NunezM
- 8M. RomanM
- 5S. CarreiraM
- 24C. DriouechM
- 30H. BurcioF
- 11P. DuranF
- 9F. JutglaF
- 1A. BayindirG
- 22J. GalanD
- 21S. CaceresD
- 17J. RuedaD
- 18Y. LagoD
- 4A. FayeD
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14A. FebasM
- 16H. GonzalezF
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
All competitions we cover
- W4-2St. Truiden27 August 2026
- L0-1away to St. Truiden20 August 2026
- W1-0Lincoln Red Imps FC13 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln Red Imps FC6 August 2026
- L0-1away to Kairat Almaty29 July 2026
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
What these results say
- Omonia Nicosia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Nicosia had two goals or fewer.
- Celta Vigo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Celta Vigo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and Celta Vigo
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony40
Celta Vigo
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Omonia Nicosia beat Celta Vigo 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 37% and given a win for Omonia Nicosia 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: J. Balkovec 88' for Omonia Nicosia. On expected goals it finished 0.32–1.17.
How the call on Omonia Nicosia v Celta Vigo has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 32% / 31% / 37%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Omonia Nicosia win32%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Celta Vigo win37%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.