16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje UEFA Europa League prediction & result

BayArena, Leverkusen
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Celje.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Bayer Leverkusen, 19% draw, 10% Celje — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 71% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Seslar (OG)
15'
🔁Lucasout: J. Quansah
60'
🔁M. Tillmanout: E. Fernandez
61'
🔁M. Terrierout: A. Moreira
61'
61'
🔁A. Kucysout: B. Kramer
61'
🔁Y. Dukulyout: M. Ivansek
69'
🔁B. Verbicout: V. Tusha
🔁P. Schickout: C. Kofane
71'
⚽F. Medinaassist: A. Garcia
74'
🔁M. Diabyout: E. Ben Seghir
80'
80'
🔁L. Ticicout: P. Daniel

Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje

56%Possession44%
17Shots5
8On target3
6Corners2
1.93xG0.9

Goals against chances

Bayer Leverkusen2 from 1.93 xGabout what the chances were worth
Celje0 from 0.90 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. FlekkenG
  • 17LucasD
  • 5L. BadeD
  • 12E. TapsobaD
  • 2F. MedinaD
  • 8R. AndrichM
  • 24A. GarciaM
  • 11M. TerrierM
  • 10M. TillmanM
  • 19M. DiabyM
  • 14P. SchickF
Substitutes
  • 36N. LombG
  • 28J. BlaswichG
  • 3M. GutierrezD
  • 4J. QuansahD
  • 6E. FernandezM
  • 29E. Ben SeghirF
  • 9A. MoreiraF
  • 35C. KofaneF
Coach: Carles Martinez
Celje 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. LebanG
  • 2P. SirvysD
  • 44L. BejgerD
  • 6A. TutyskinasD
  • 11M. AvdyliD
  • 14L. TicicM
  • 19M. ZabukovnikM
  • 91Y. DukulyM
  • 10S. SeslarM
  • 7B. VerbicM
  • 47A. KucysF
Substitutes
  • 23Z. FrelihG
  • 12L. KolarG
  • 33L. KoutrisD
  • 20A. DionkouD
  • 13P. DanielM
  • 4D. HrkaM
  • 8M. KvesicM
  • 9B. KramerF
  • 25V. TushaF
Coach: Vitor Campelos

Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
  • W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
  • L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026

Celje

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Slovan Bratislava26 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Slovan Bratislava19 August 2026
  • W2-0Ararat-Armenia11 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Ararat-Armenia4 August 2026
  • D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026

What these results say

  • Celje scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Celje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Celje conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bayer Leverkusen330080+89
29Celje301227-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Bayer Leverkusen beat Celje 2–0. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: S. Seslar (own goal) 15' for Bayer Leverkusen, F. Medina 74' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 1.93–0.90.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.