Bayer Leverkusen
vs
Celje
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 Celje
The model makes it 71% Bayer Leverkusen, 19% draw, 10% Celje — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 3.06, Celje 0.56.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 3 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Bayer Leverkusen wins, grey are draws, red are Celje wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 71% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje
Bayer Leverkusen
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
Celje
- L1-2Slovan Bratislava26 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slovan Bratislava19 August 2026
- W2-0Ararat-Armenia11 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ararat-Armenia4 August 2026
- D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë28 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bayer Leverkusen and Celje in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Celje has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Bundesliga · UEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and Celje
Bayer Leverkusen
- P. Schick3 goals1 assists
- Christian Kofane2 goals
Celje
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Bayer Leverkusen carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.36 for Celje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.06 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.56 for Celje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.22 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celje rate 0.57 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.06 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen against 0.56 for Celje. Bayer Leverkusen's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.54 for Celje.