Anderlecht vs Lyon UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Anderlecht 1-2 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Anderlecht, 31% draw, 28% Lyon — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Anderlecht at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Anderlecht vs Lyon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26C. CoosemansG
- 79A. MaamarD
- 12A. OmobamideleD
- 27L. PetrotD
- 6L. AugustinssonD
- 18L. AmbrosM
- 24E. LlansanaM
- 8R. AmaneM
- 10M. WinklerM
- 9M. CvetkovicF
- 19T. AasgaardF
- 32J. HeekerenG
- 5O. ReabciukD
- 50K. BarryD
- 55M. KanaM
- 29M. StroeykensM
- 68N. Kalonji KafumpataM
- 21T. BentayebF
- 61J. Nga KanaM
- 11O. AntmanF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 21R. KluivertD
- 22C. MataD
- 19M. NiakhateD
- 76M. OuedraogoD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 23T. MortonM
- 99N. NarteyM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 17L. OpendaF
- 11K. NakamuraF
- 1D. GreifG
- 25J. BenguiG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 20F. BacherD
- 8C. TolissoM
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 18K. MerahM
- 10P. SulcM
Form going into Anderlecht vs Lyon
Anderlecht
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to KV Mechelen11 September 2026
- D0-0Genk6 September 2026
- W1-0Kortrijk3 September 2026
- L0-3away to Union St. Gilloise30 August 2026
- W3-0Kairat Almaty27 August 2026
Lyon
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- L1-2Fenerbahçe26 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
What these results say
- Anderlecht kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Anderlecht vs Lyon
- 16 July 2022Anderlecht 2–3 LyonFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Anderlecht and Lyon
Anderlecht
GoalsAssists
- M. CvetkoviÄ20
Lyon
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyon won 2–1 at Anderlecht. The model had leaned towards a win for Anderlecht at 41% and given a win for Lyon 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Nartey 8' for Lyon, K. Nakamura 22' for Lyon, M. Cvetkovic 61' for Anderlecht. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.27.
How the call on Anderlecht v Lyon has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 31% / 28%: the biggest move is Lyon's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Anderlecht win41%▲ +3
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Lyon win28%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Anderlecht's most recent league matches and Lyon's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.