Sturm Graz vs Rennes UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sturm Graz 0-0 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Sturm Graz, 28% draw, 45% Rennes — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Line-ups
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 28J. HeilD
- 5A. VallciD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 27L. BalboD
- 39L. WeinhandlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 43J. HodlM
- 26B. BeganovicF
- 15G. MamageishviliF
- 22A. HelacG
- 41E. LorenzG
- 21P. PetrovicD
- 23A. MalicD
- 19S. SeidlM
- 8F. Rozga
- 4J. Gorenc StankovicM
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 25L. GrgicF
- 30B. SambaG
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 45M. CamaraM
- 10L. BlasM
- 17S. SzymanskiM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 11M. TamariM
- 9E. LepaulF
- 16N. LemaitreG
- 60K. BelazzougG
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 36A. SeiduD
- 5G. OliveiraD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 21V. RongierM
- 70A. NordinF
- 90I. SoumareF
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Sturm Graz
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach15 August 2026
- L0-1Fenerbahçe11 August 2026
Rennes
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rennes scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rennes won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Sturm Graz and Rennes drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Rennes at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
How the call on Sturm Graz v Rennes has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 27% / 28% / 45%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Sturm Graz win27%▼ −5
- Draw28%=
- Rennes win45%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.