Ararat-Armenia
vs
Sparta Praha
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Ararat-Armenia 0–2 Sparta Praha
The model makes it 19% Ararat-Armenia, 24% draw, 57% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 0.96, Sparta Praha 2.53.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Ararat-Armenia wins, grey are draws, red are Sparta Praha wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026
Sparta Praha
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sparta Praha | Czech Liga | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Ararat-Armenia has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Czech Liga
Leading scorers: Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
No leading scorers listed yet.
Sparta Praha
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assists
- J. Mercado3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ararat-Armenia carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.8 for Sparta Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Ararat-Armenia and 2.53 for Sparta Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ararat-Armenia rate 0.53 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Praha rate 1.00 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ararat-Armenia against 2.53 for Sparta Praha. Ararat-Armenia's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.11 for Sparta Praha.