Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Ararat-Armenia 1-4 Sparta Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Ararat-Armenia, 24% draw, 57% Sparta Praha — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 57% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Line-ups
- 98Joao BravimG
- 3Junior JulioD
- 43B. R. Wilson ValdezD
- 47A. MalisD
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 2H. OliveiraM
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 70BennyM
- 77A. SerobyanF
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 11Z. BanjaquiF
- 1A. NersesyanG
- 14B. PereiraD
- 5Luis FelipeD
- 20A. TeraM
- 17M. CarlierM
- 10A. AmbartsumyanM
- 8J. A. BalantaM
- 25A. NdourF
- 9A. EloyanM
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 11M. RynesD
- 10A. KarabecM
- 28R. MacekM
- 38H. SochurekM
- 17J. MercadoF
- 14J. BrunesF
- 7J. AlcocerF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 54L. FrancG
- 3P. KaderabekD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 15V. VitalyosD
- 5S. EnemeM
- 31M. JurasekM
- 26P. VydraM
- 18A. IrvingM
Form going into Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova27 August 2026
- D1-1away to Universitatea Craiova20 August 2026
- L0-2away to Celje11 August 2026
- W2-1Celje4 August 2026
- L1-2away to Shamrock Rovers28 July 2026
Sparta Praha
All competitions we cover
- W2-0FK Jablonec12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové6 September 2026
- L0-3Slavia Praha30 August 2026
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
- W4-1Teplice15 August 2026
What these results say
- Ararat-Armenia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ararat-Armenia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Praha scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sparta Praha had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha
- 14 August 2025Ararat-Armenia 1–2 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League
- 7 August 2025Sparta Praha 4–1 Ararat-ArmeniaUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Ararat-Armenia and Sparta Praha
Ararat-Armenia
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Sparta Praha
GoalsAssists
- T. Guddal20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Praha won 4–1 at Ararat-Armenia. The model had made a win for Sparta Praha its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: T. Guddal 20' for Sparta Praha, T. Guddal 22' for Sparta Praha, J. Mercado 53' for Sparta Praha, B. R. Wilson Valdez 55' for Ararat-Armenia, P. Vydra 71' for Sparta Praha.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.