Famalicao
vs
Arouca
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Famalicao 1–0 Arouca
The model makes it 39% Famalicao, 29% draw, 32% Arouca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Famalicao 1.35, Arouca 1.18.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Famalicao's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Arouca's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 688 matches.
Key facts
- Famalicao are 13th on 7 points from 8 games; Arouca are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Famalicao have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Alverca.
- Arouca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estrela.
- Last 6 meetings: Famalicao 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Famalicao 0–0 Arouca.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Famalicao vs Arouca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Famalicao at 39% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Famalicao vs Arouca
Famalicao
Primeira Liga
- L1-4Alverca12 October 2026
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
Arouca
Primeira Liga
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Famalicao failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Famalicao scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arouca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Arouca
- 22 July 2026Famalicao 0–0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 March 2026Famalicao 1–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 5 October 2025Arouca 1–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 5 April 2025Arouca 1–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2024Famalicao 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 23 February 2024Arouca 3–2 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Arouca
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Famalicao carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.82 for Arouca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Famalicao and 1.18 for Arouca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Famalicao rate 0.86 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arouca rate 0.97 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arouca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Famalicao a 0% chance of the title and Arouca 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Famalicao the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Famalicao against 1.18 for Arouca. Famalicao's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.04 for Arouca.
How the model reaches 39% for Famalicao to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Famalicao to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Famalicao's ratings take away 4 points and Arouca's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Famalicao's ratings37%−4
- Arouca's ratings39%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Famalicao at home · Arouca away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Famalicao 8, Arouca 8.
Famalicao score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Arouca have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Famalicao
- at Benfica30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 14%
- vs Academico Viseu6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at Moreirense13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
Arouca
- vs Rio Ave28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at SC Braga6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- at Academico Viseu13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.