Lazio
vs
Cagliari
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lazio 1–0 Cagliari
The model makes it 40% Lazio, 32% draw, 28% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Lazio 1.16, Cagliari 0.88.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Lazio are 3rd on 16 points from 6 games; Cagliari are 5th on 13 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Monza.
- Cagliari are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Juventus.
- Last 6 meetings: Lazio 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Cagliari 0–0 Lazio.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lazio vs Cagliari
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lazio vs Cagliari
Lazio
- W3-1Monza11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
Cagliari
- D1-1Juventus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Lazio
Cagliari and Lazio have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 5 of them to Cagliari's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Cagliari on 21 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Lazio | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Feb 2026
Serie ACagliari 0–0 Lazio - 3 Nov 2025
Serie ALazio 2–0 Cagliari - 3 Feb 2025
Serie ACagliari 1–2 Lazio - 4 Nov 2024
Serie ALazio 2–1 Cagliari - 10 Feb 2024
Serie ACagliari 1–3 Lazio - 2 Dec 2023
Serie ALazio 1–0 Cagliari
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Lazio and Cagliari
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- D. Frattesi30
- T. Noslin22
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lazio carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.89 for Cagliari. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Lazio and 0.88 for Cagliari. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lazio rate 1.01 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cagliari rate 0.87 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lazio a 0.8% chance of the title and Cagliari 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lazio against 0.88 for Cagliari. Lazio's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.82 for Cagliari.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lazio at home · Cagliari away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LazioCagliari
Lazio are 2nd after 6 Serie A matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Cagliari are 4th after 6 (between 3rd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Lazio 6, Cagliari 6.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Cagliari have let in 0 there.
Cagliari score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Lazio have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lazio
- at Napoli8 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Lecce21 Nov · Serie Awin 52%
Cagliari
- vs Frosinone7 Nov · Serie Awin 35%
- at Como21 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.