Lecce
vs
Genoa
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lecce 0–1 Genoa
The model makes it 34% Lecce, 31% draw, 35% Genoa — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lecce 1.09, Genoa 1.11.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lecce and Genoa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Lecce are 13th on 6 points from 6 games; Genoa are 19th on 4 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Lecce have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bologna.
- Genoa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to AS Roma.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Lecce 1–0 Genoa.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lecce vs Genoa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Genoa at 35% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lecce vs Genoa
Lecce
- L1-2Bologna11 October 2026
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
- L0-4AS Roma31 August 2026
Genoa
- L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026
- W2-1Fiorentina10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
What these results say
- Lecce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lecce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lecce had three goals or more.
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Genoa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Genoa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Lecce
Genoa and Lecce have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Lecce won the last one 1–0 on 24 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Lecce | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 8 goals, an average of 1.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 May 2026
Serie ALecce 1–0 Genoa - 23 Aug 2025
Serie AGenoa 0–0 Lecce - 14 Mar 2025
Serie AGenoa 2–1 Lecce - 5 Jan 2025
Serie ALecce 0–0 Genoa - 28 Jan 2024
Serie AGenoa 2–1 Lecce - 22 Sep 2023
Serie ALecce 1–0 Genoa
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Lecce and Genoa
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lecce carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.73 for Genoa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Lecce and 1.11 for Genoa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lecce rate 0.75 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genoa rate 0.81 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lecce, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genoa the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lecce against 1.11 for Genoa. Lecce's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.04 for Genoa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lecce at home · Genoa away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LecceGenoa
Lecce are 12th after 6 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 14th so far); Genoa are 19th after 7 (between 16th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Lecce 6, Genoa 7.
Lecce score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Genoa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lecce
- at Torino7 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Lazio21 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
Genoa
- vs AC Milan8 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
- at Sassuolo22 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
- at Inter29 Nov · Serie Awin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.