Gremio vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 1-2 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gremio, 28% draw, 40% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 82WallaceD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 11TeteM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 77J. CabralM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 18Joao PedroD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 65RiquelmeM
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 5S. SosaM
- 28AdsonM
- 3Tche TcheM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GomezM
- 9F. ColidioF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 22A. LescanoM
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 8JairM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
Form going into Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 37 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
- 22 March 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 20 November 2025Gremio 2–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 19 July 2025Vasco da Gama 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 28 July 2024Gremio 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 14 April 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 3 December 2023Gremio 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Vasco da Gama
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama won 2–1 at Gremio. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Vasco da Gama at 40%. The goals: M. Villasanti 39' for Gremio, Thiago Mendes 76' for Vasco da Gama, F. Colidio 80' for Vasco da Gama. On expected goals it finished 0.68–1.52.
How the call on Gremio v Vasco da Gama has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Gremio's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Gremio win32%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Vasco da Gama win40%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.