Gremio
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 1-2 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gremio, 29% draw, 39% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.28, Vasco da Gama 1.53.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
Gremio
- L0-1away to Vitoria7 September 2026
- W3-1Chapecoense30 August 2026
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
Vasco da Gama
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
- 22 March 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 20 November 2025Gremio 2–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 19 July 2025Vasco da Gama 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 28 July 2024Gremio 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 14 April 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 3 December 2023Gremio 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Vasco da Gama
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.75 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Gremio and 1.53 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.73 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 0.89 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gremio, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Gremio against 1.53 for Vasco da Gama. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.08 for Vasco da Gama.