12 September 2026, 00:00 UTC

Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result

Curitiba
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Coritiba 3-3 Atletico Paranaense.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Coritiba, 28% draw, 34% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Coritiba at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coritiba0%Draw1%Atletico Paranaense99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Luiz Gustavoassist: Lucas Esquivel
Joaquin Lavega
28'
30'
⚽Arthur Diasassist: João Victor Machado Cruz
Jacy
34'
34'
Kevin Viveros
43'
João Victor Machado Cruz
•Breno Lopes
44'
Breno Lopes
45+1'
⚽Tiago Coser
45+2'
45+5'
João Vitor Silva Dantas de Oliveira
JP Chermont
45+9'
Pedro Rocha
45+12'
45'
🔁Gaston Americo Benavidezout: Gilberto
45'
🔁João Victor Machado Cruzout: Carlos Teran
🔁Bruno Meloout: Richard
45'
🔁Pedro Rochaout: Rodrigo Rodrigues
45'
🔁Joaquin Lavegaout: Paulo Roberto
45'
🔁JP Chermontout: Rodrigo Moledo
45'
45'
🔁João Vitor Silva Dantas de Oliveiraout: Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva
63'
⚽Kevin Viveros (pen)
67'
🔁Kevin Viverosout: Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
🔁Thiago Santosout: Rodrigo Silva Nascimento
74'
⚽Rodrigo Moledoassist: Josué
90+1'
90+3'
Luiz Gustavo
90+4'
🔁Stiven Mendozaout: Juan Portilla
⚽Rodrigo Moledoassist: Josué
90+7'

Match stats — Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense

61%Possession39%
22Shots14
7On target5
8Corners3

Line-ups

Coritiba 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pedro LuccasG
  • 44João Pedro ChermontD
  • 23Tiago CóserD
  • 55JacyD
  • 26Bruno MeloD
  • 21Thiago SantosM
  • 19S. GómezM
  • 77Breno LopesM
  • 10JosuéM
  • 7J. LavegaM
  • 32Pedro RochaF
Substitutes
  • 39GustavoM
  • 28FabinhoF
  • 3MaiconD
  • 18Paulo RobertoM
  • 22Pedro RangelG
  • 78Renato MarquesF
  • 25RichardM
  • 66Rodrigo GeladoD
  • 4Rodrigo MoledoD
Coach: Fernando Seabra
Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 1MycaelG
  • 25DantasD
  • 33J. AguirreD
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 29G. BenavídezM
  • 16JádsonM
  • 14Luiz GustavoM
  • 37L. EsquivelM
  • 8João CruzM
  • 7S. MendozaM
  • 9K. ViverosF
Substitutes
  • 10B. ZapelliM
  • 22C. TeránD
  • 23SantosG
  • 70RenanF
  • 27J. PortillaM
  • 21LeozinhoF
  • 3LéoD
  • 12GilbertoD
  • 5FelipinhoD
Coach: Odair Hellmann

Form going into Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense

Coritiba

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
  • W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
  • W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026

Atletico Paranaense

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
  • D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
  • D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Coritiba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba.
  • Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Coritiba32109133850-1239
5Atletico Paranaense3315995040+1054

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense

  • 22 March 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
  • 17 January 2026Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CoritibaParanaense - 1
  • 19 October 2025Coritiba 0–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
  • 28 June 2025Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CoritibaSerie B
  • 25 January 2025Coritiba 0–0 Atletico ParanaenseParanaense - 1
  • 18 February 2024Coritiba 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseParanaense - 1

The full Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense record →

Leading scorers: Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense

Coritiba

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Rocha81
  • Breno Lopes81

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Coritiba at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Luiz Gustavo 14' for Atletico Paranaense, Arthur Dias 30' for Atletico Paranaense, Tiago Coser 45+2' for Coritiba, Kevin Viveros (penalty) 63' for Atletico Paranaense, Rodrigo Moledo 90+1' for Coritiba, Rodrigo Moledo 90+7' for Coritiba. Sent off: Breno Lopes (Coritiba) 45+1'.

How the call on Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Coritiba's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Coritiba win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Atletico Paranaense win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.