Coritiba
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 3-3 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Coritiba, 27% draw, 32% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Coritiba 1.89, Atletico Paranaense 1.51.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coritiba at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense
Line-ups
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55JacyD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GómezM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 10JosuéM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 39GustavoM
- 28FabinhoF
- 3MaiconD
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 25RichardM
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 1MycaelG
- 25DantasD
- 33J. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 16JádsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 37L. EsquivelM
- 8João CruzM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 22C. TeránD
- 23SantosG
- 70RenanF
- 27J. PortillaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 3LéoD
- 12GilbertoD
- 5FelipinhoD
Form going into Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
- W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense
- 22 March 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 17 January 2026Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CoritibaParanaense - 1
- 19 October 2025Coritiba 0–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie B
- 28 June 2025Atletico Paranaense 0–1 CoritibaSerie B
- 25 January 2025Coritiba 0–0 Atletico ParanaenseParanaense - 1
- 18 February 2024Coritiba 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseParanaense - 1
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
- Pedro Rocha8 goals1 assists
- Breno Lopes8 goals1 assists
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.89 goals for Coritiba and 1.51 for Atletico Paranaense; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Luiz Gustavo 14' (Atletico Paranaense), Arthur Dias 30' (Atletico Paranaense), Tiago Coser 45' (Coritiba), Kevin Viveros 63' (Atletico Paranaense), Rodrigo Moledo 90' (Coritiba), Rodrigo Moledo 90' (Coritiba).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coritiba the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Coritiba against 1.51 for Atletico Paranaense. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.38 for Atletico Paranaense.