Clausura - 9 · 12 September 2026, 00:30 UTC

Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires
Full time3 1

Final score: Boca Juniors 3-1 Central Cordoba de Santiago.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Boca Juniors, 26% draw, 24% Central Cordoba de Santiago — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Boca Juniors 2.11, Central Cordoba de Santiago 1.07.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

58%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 10%1-1 10%2-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Boca Juniors at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Boca Juniors99%Draw1%Central Cordoba de Santiago0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ángel Romeroassist: Enner Valencia
5'
Enner Valenciaassist: Dylan Gorosito
11'
Dylan Gorosito
17'
Tomás Belmonte
26'
Marco Pellegrino
39'
43'
Leonardo Sequeira
Ángel Romeroassist: Carlos Palacios
56'
62'
Santiago Moyano
65'
🔁Diego Barreraout: Horacio Tijanovich
65'
🔁Santiago Moyanoout: Martín Francisco Cuitiño
🔁Lautaro Blancoout: Matías Satas
67'
68'
🔁Darío Cáceresout: Leonardo Marchi
🔁Tomás Belmonteout: Santiago Ascacibar
72'
🔁Enner Valenciaout: Milton Giménez
72'
🔁Ángel Romeroout: Rodrigo Alexander Bacidalupe
72'
76'
🔁Leonardo Sequeiraout: Lucas Varaldo
90'
Martín Francisco Cuitiñoassist: Fernando Martinez

Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

55%Possession45%
9Shots15
6On target1
2Corners6

Line-ups

Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
  • 12L. BreyG
  • 24D. GorositoD
  • 4N. FigalD
  • 26Marco PellegrinoD
  • 3L. BlancoD
  • 8T. BelmonteM
  • 15W. AlarcónM
  • 11Á. RomeroM
  • 7C. PalaciosM
  • 22S. VillaM
  • 13E. ValenciaF
Substitutes
  • 30J. GarcíaG
  • 19L. FloresF
  • 2L. Di LolloD
  • 44Rodrigo Alexander BacidalupeF
  • 25S. AscacíbarM
  • 9M. GiménezF
  • 42F. HerreraD
  • 17L. LozanoD
  • 16M. MerentielF
Coach: R. Arruabarrena
Central Cordoba de Santiago 4-4-2
  • 1A. AguerreG
  • 33S. MoyanoD
  • 2A. MacielD
  • 6F. MansillaD
  • 23D. CáceresD
  • 20F. MartínezM
  • 22M. VeraM
  • 18L. GonzálezM
  • 7D. BarreraM
  • 10M. IacobellisF
  • 28L. SequeiraF
Substitutes
  • 55J. CardozoM
  • 17Y. CasermeiroD
  • 5T. CraveroM
  • 47M. CuitinoF
  • 29Joaquin FloresF
  • 3L. MarchiD
  • 19E. NayaF
  • 30F. RodriguezM
  • 11H. TijanovichF
Coach: S. Domínguez

Form going into Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Boca Juniors

  • D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
  • W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • L0-1Independiente6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Tigre24 August 2026
  • L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Boca Juniors93511211+114
15Central Cordoba de Santiago9216511-67

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • 2 May 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 September 2025Boca Juniors 2–2 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 March 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–3 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 May 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–4 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 February 2024Boca Juniors 2–0 Central Cordoba de SantiagoCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 19 September 2023Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–3 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional

Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Central Cordoba de Santiago

Boca Juniors

  • M. Merentiel6 goals2 assists

Central Cordoba de Santiago

  • M. Santos7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.11 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.07 for Central Cordoba de Santiago; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ángel Romero 5' (Boca Juniors), Enner Valencia 11' (Boca Juniors), Ángel Romero 56' (Boca Juniors), Martín Francisco Cuitiño 90' (Central Cordoba de Santiago).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 1.07 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.49 for Central Cordoba de Santiago.