Palmeiras
vs
Sao Paulo
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Palmeiras, 29% draw, 26% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.59, Sao Paulo 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
Sao Paulo
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
- D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
- 22 March 2026Sao Paulo 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 1 March 2026Palmeiras 2–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 24 January 2026Palmeiras 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 5 October 2025Sao Paulo 2–3 PalmeirasSerie A
- 11 May 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 11 March 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.68 for Sao Paulo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Palmeiras and 0.95 for Sao Paulo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 0.89 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sao Paulo rate 0.78 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 42.6% chance of the title and Sao Paulo 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.95 for Sao Paulo. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.1 for Sao Paulo.