Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Palmeiras, 29% draw, 28% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GomezD
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 4A. GiayM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 11J. AriasF
- 42J. LopezF
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21Bruno BertinatoG
- 56Arthur GabrielD
- 12KhellvenD
- 43BenedettiD
- 32E. MartinezM
- 50Luis PachecoM
- 48LarsonM
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 28NewtonD
- 2R. ToloiD
- 54Luis OsorioD
- 27Victor SaM
- 48DjhordneyM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 18WendellM
- 80CaulyF
- 11FerreiraF
- 17Andre SilvaF
- 23RafaelG
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 53IsacD
- 12Iago BorduchiD
- 94DanielzinhoM
- 8Marcos AntonioM
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 34P. dos SantosF
Form going into Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
Sao Paulo
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
- D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo
- 22 March 2026Sao Paulo 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 1 March 2026Palmeiras 2–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 24 January 2026Palmeiras 3–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 5 October 2025Sao Paulo 2–3 PalmeirasSerie A
- 11 May 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 11 March 2025Palmeiras 1–0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López96
- Maurício91
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palmeiras beat Sao Paulo 2–0. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Murilo 45' for Palmeiras, Vitor Roque 51' for Palmeiras. Sent off: Luis Osorio (Sao Paulo) 39'. On expected goals it finished 2.43–1.29.
How the call on Palmeiras v Sao Paulo has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Palmeiras's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Palmeiras win43%▼ −5
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Sao Paulo win28%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.