12 September 2026, 20:00 UTC

Chapecoense vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapeco
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Chapecoense 1-2 Internacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Chapecoense, 28% draw, 31% Internacional — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chapecoense at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chapecoense0%Draw5%Internacional95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Bruno Henriqueassist: J. Carbonero
44'
Johan Carbonero
Marcinho
45+3'
⚽Mauricio Garcezassist: Marcinho
45'
Eduardo Doma
49'
Camilo
64'
🔁M. Carvalhoout: Y. Bolasie
65'
65'
🔁Bruno Henriqueout: Joao Victor
67'
⚽J. Carbonero
74'
João Victor Alves de Morais Francisco
Yannick Bolasie
75'
🔁Yago Felipeout: Rubens Ricoldi
76'
🔁Evertonout: Bruno Matias
76'
78'
Bruno Gomes
85'
🔁Bruno Gomesout: Juninho
85'
🔁J. Carboneroout: N. Eliasson
🔁Bruno Pachecoout: Fernando
90+2'
🔁Camilo Reijersout: D. Borrero
90+2'
90+3'
🔁Paulinho Paulaout: Ronaldo
90+3'
🔁Alan Patrickout: A. Sanabria

Match stats — Chapecoense vs Internacional

63%Possession37%
13Shots4
2On target2
4Corners2
0.7xG0.34

Goals against chances

Chapecoense1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
Internacional2 from 0.34 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
  • 98AndersonG
  • 26EvertonD
  • 21KauanD
  • 3Eduardo DomaD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 27Camilo ReijersM
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 80M. CarvalhoM
  • 31Mauricio GarcezM
  • 9TulioF
Substitutes
  • 1Rafael SantosG
  • 30Matheus AurelioG
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 12FernandoD
  • 4Joao PauloD
  • 6ManchaD
  • 70Rubens RicoldiM
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 19David AntunesM
Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Internacional 4-1-4-1
  • 23Matheus CunhaG
  • 15Bruno GomesD
  • 3G. MaripanD
  • 25G. MercadoD
  • 26A. BernabeiD
  • 5R. VillagraM
  • 28VitinhoM
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 27Paulinho PaulaM
  • 7J. CarboneroM
  • 10Alan PatrickF
Substitutes
  • 12AnthoniG
  • 18JuninhoD
  • 53L. F. de Morais FranciscoD
  • 4F. TorresD
  • 17N. EliassonM
  • 29Thiago MaiaM
  • 16RonaldoM
  • 31AllexM
  • 52G. ViniciusM
Coach: Paulo Pezzolano

Form going into Chapecoense vs Internacional

Chapecoense

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
  • W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
  • D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026

Internacional

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Santos6 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
  • D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
  • D1-1Remo17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
  • Internacional did not win any of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3249193266-3421
17Internacional33811143742-535

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Internacional

  • 22 March 2026Internacional 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 10 October 2021Internacional 5–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 24 June 2021Chapecoense 1–2 InternacionalSerie A
  • 22 September 2019Internacional 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
  • 27 April 2019Chapecoense 2–0 InternacionalSerie A
  • 17 September 2018Chapecoense 2–1 InternacionalSerie A

The full Chapecoense vs Internacional record →

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Internacional

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Internacional won 2–1 at Chapecoense. The model had leaned towards a win for Chapecoense at 41% and given a win for Internacional 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Henrique 25' for Internacional, Mauricio Garcez 45' for Chapecoense, J. Carbonero 67' for Internacional. On expected goals it finished 0.70–0.34.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.