Chapecoense
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Chapecoense 1-2 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Chapecoense, 29% draw, 31% Internacional — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.58, Internacional 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Internacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chapecoense at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chapecoense vs Internacional
Chapecoense
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
- D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
Internacional
- L2-3Santos6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
- D1-1Remo17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Internacional
- 22 March 2026Internacional 2–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 10 October 2021Internacional 5–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 24 June 2021Chapecoense 1–2 InternacionalSerie A
- 22 September 2019Internacional 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 27 April 2019Chapecoense 2–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 17 September 2018Chapecoense 2–1 InternacionalSerie A
Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Internacional
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chapecoense carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.71 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Chapecoense and 1.26 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chapecoense rate 0.85 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 0.87 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Internacional, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chapecoense the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.26 for Internacional. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.14 for Internacional.