Botafogo
vs
RB Bragantino
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Botafogo, 29% draw, 28% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.60, RB Bragantino 1.09.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Botafogo vs RB Bragantino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Botafogo vs RB Bragantino
Botafogo
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
RB Bragantino
- L2-3Bahia5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo29 August 2026
- W1-0Gremio23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Paranaense15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Botafogo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs RB Bragantino
- 21 March 2026RB Bragantino 1–2 BotafogoSerie A
- 30 August 2025Botafogo 4–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 6 August 2025RB Bragantino 0–1 BotafogoCopa Do Brasil
- 29 July 2025Botafogo 2–0 RB BragantinoCopa Do Brasil
- 12 April 2025RB Bragantino 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 26 October 2024RB Bragantino 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
Leading scorers: Botafogo and RB Bragantino
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botafogo carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.65 for RB Bragantino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Botafogo and 1.09 for RB Bragantino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo rate 0.80 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RB Bragantino rate 0.83 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RB Bragantino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Botafogo against 1.09 for RB Bragantino. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.23 for RB Bragantino.