12 September 2026, 20:30 UTC

Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro, Tucuman
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Atletico Tucuman 1-2 River Plate.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atletico Tucuman, 30% draw, 34% River Plate — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Tucuman at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Tucuman2%Draw93%River Plate5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Franco Nicola
13'
22'
⚽T. Andradaassist: G. Montiel
🔁R. Tesuriout: J. Fernandez
46'
🔁L. Diazout: R. Ruiz
46'
53'
🔁T. Andradaout: M. Arambarri
Julián Fernández
65'
72'
🔁S. Driussiout: J. Meza
72'
🔁T. Galvanout: L. Beltran
Leonel Di Plácido
73'
🔁N. Lamendolaout: A. Canelo
73'
76'
Mauro Arambarri
82'
Marcos Acuña
⚽C. D. Ferreira Namanduassist: L. Godoy
83'
🔁L. Godoyout: G. Compagnucci
87'
90+4'
🔁A. Correaout: R. Borre
90'
⚽T. Almadaassist: L. Beltran

Match stats — Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate

25%Possession75%
6Shots18
1On target5
1Corners5
0.62xG1.01

Goals against chances

Atletico Tucuman1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
River Plate2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1
  • 1L. IngolottiG
  • 24L. Di PlacidoD
  • 26C. D. Ferreira NamanduD
  • 36L. VallejoD
  • 21I. GalvanD
  • 19L. VegaM
  • 11R. TesuriM
  • 31L. GodoyM
  • 10N. FrancoM
  • 23N. LamendolaM
  • 9L. DiazF
Substitutes
  • 25T. DursoG
  • 6G. FerrariD
  • 3M. VillaD
  • 32J. InfanteD
  • 27R. GranilloF
  • 5J. FernandezM
  • 8E. HamM
  • 28G. CompagnucciD
  • 14A. CaneloF
Coach: Julio Falcioni
River Plate 4-2-3-1
  • 41S. BeltranG
  • 29G. MontielD
  • 28L. Martinez QuartaD
  • 30N. OtamendiD
  • 21M. AcunaD
  • 15Fausto VeraM
  • 23T. AlmadaM
  • 50T. AndradaM
  • 10A. CorreaM
  • 26T. GalvanM
  • 9S. DriussiF
Substitutes
  • 33E. CenturionG
  • 20G. GonzalezD
  • 2T. RamirezD
  • 3F. OrtegaD
  • 13L. RiveroD
  • 8M. ArambarriM
  • 24J. MezaM
  • 43V. LuceroM
  • 25L. PereyraF
Coach: Leonardo Ponzio

Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate

Atletico Tucuman

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
  • D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
  • D0-0Instituto Cordoba22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto17 August 2026
  • L1-2Sarmiento Junin8 August 2026

River Plate

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
  • D2-2Velez Sarsfield23 August 2026
  • W2-0Argentinos Juniors16 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Tigre8 August 2026

What these results say

  • River Plate scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • River Plate conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Atletico Tucuman144551313017
4River Plate147251913+623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate

  • 3 May 2026River Plate 0–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 21 September 2025Atletico Tucuman 2–0 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 March 2025River Plate 1–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 September 2024River Plate 4–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 15 February 2024Atletico Tucuman 0–0 River PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 22 September 2023River Plate 1–0 Atletico TucumanCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Atletico Tucuman vs River Plate record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Tucuman and River Plate

Atletico Tucuman

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

River Plate

GoalsAssists

  • T. Galván74
  • G. Montiel73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

River Plate won 2–1 at Atletico Tucuman. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Tucuman at 36% and given a win for River Plate 34%. The goals: T. Andrada 22' for River Plate, C. D. Ferreira Namandu 83' for Atletico Tucuman, T. Almada 90' for River Plate. Sent off: Franco Nicola (Atletico Tucuman) 13'. On expected goals it finished 0.62–1.01.

How the call on Atletico Tucuman v River Plate has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is River Plate's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Atletico Tucuman win36%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. River Plate win34%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.