Gremio vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 2-1 Sao Paulo.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Gremio, 25% draw, 42% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sao Paulo at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 23MarlonD
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 7C. PavonM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 5J. NardoniM
- 77J. CabralM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 23RafaelG
- 19Lucas Ramon
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 54Luis OsorioD
- 18WendellD
- 94DanielzinhoM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 8Marcos AntonioM
- 10LucianoM
- 11FerreiraM
- 9Jonathan CalleriF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 20ButaD
- 22D. DuarteD
- 80CaulyM
- 27Victor SaF
- 17Andre SilvaF
- 28NewtonM
- 35SabinoD
- 34P. dos SantosF
Form going into Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Gremio
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
Sao Paulo
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Santos29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Sao Paulo
- 12 February 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 October 2025Gremio 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 18 May 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 1 December 2024Gremio 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 17 July 2024Sao Paulo 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 21 October 2023Sao Paulo 3–0 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Sao Paulo
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio beat Sao Paulo 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sao Paulo at 42% and given a win for Gremio 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Marcos Antonio 45' for Sao Paulo, Wallace 48' for Gremio, C. Pavon 86' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 1.62–1.37.