Gremio
vs
Sao Paulo
The model makes it 33% Gremio, 25% draw, 42% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Gremio 1.43, Sao Paulo 1.62.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gremio
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
- L1-3Corinthians30 May 2026
- W3-2Santos23 May 2026
- D1-1away to Bahia17 May 2026
Sao Paulo
- D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Remo31 May 2026
- D1-1Botafogo23 May 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense16 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Sao Paulo
- 12 February 2026Sao Paulo 2–0 GremioSerie A
- 16 October 2025Gremio 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 18 May 2025Sao Paulo 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 1 December 2024Gremio 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 17 July 2024Sao Paulo 1–0 GremioSerie A
- 21 October 2023Sao Paulo 3–0 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals
Sao Paulo
- J. Calleri7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.69 for Sao Paulo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gremio D-W-L-L-D; Sao Paulo L-D-L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Gremio and 1.62 for Sao Paulo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.70 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sao Paulo rate 0.78 and 1.08.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gremio against 1.62 for Sao Paulo. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.08 for Sao Paulo.