New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 0-2 Houston Dynamo.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% New England Revolution, 27% draw, 28% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New England Revolution at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Matt TurnerG
- 8Matt PolsterD
- 22Ethan KohlerD
- 2Mamadou FofanaD
- 23William SandsD
- 21Brooklyn RainesM
- 10Carles GilM
- 80Alhassan YusufM
- 25Peyton MillerF
- 99Dor TurgemanF
- 17Marcos ZambranoF
- 15Cody BakerD
- 11Jack HarrisonM
- 7Griffin YowF
- 77Diego FagúndezM
- 27Wilson HarrisF
- 33Donovan ParisianG
- 4Tanner BeasonD
- 38Eric KleinM
- 14Jackson YueillM
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 6ArturM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 19Mateusz BoguszM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 24Ibrahim AliyuF
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 21Franco NegriD
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 14Duane HolmesM
Form going into New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to CF Montreal1 August 2026
- W4-1Atlanta United FC25 July 2026
- D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026
Houston Dynamo
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 47 | +8 | 58 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
- 31 January 2026New England Revolution 2–3 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2025Houston Dynamo 3–3 New England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs
- 3 October 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 5 March 2023New England Revolution 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2022Houston Dynamo 3–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2019New England Revolution 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Houston Dynamo
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo won 2–0 at New England Revolution. The model had leaned towards a win for New England Revolution at 45% and given a win for Houston Dynamo 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Guilherme 45+1' for Houston Dynamo, Agustin Resch 63' for Houston Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 0.40–0.87.