New England Revolution
vs
Houston Dynamo
The model makes it 45% New England Revolution, 27% draw, 28% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.53, Houston Dynamo 1.16.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
New England Revolution
No earlier matches on record this season.
Houston Dynamo
- W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
- W3-0Austin26 July 2026
- D1-1DC United23 July 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy24 May 2026
- W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps17 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
- 31 January 2026New England Revolution 2–3 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 3 February 2025Houston Dynamo 3–3 New England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs
- 3 October 2024Houston Dynamo 2–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 5 March 2023New England Revolution 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2022Houston Dynamo 3–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2019New England Revolution 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New England Revolution carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.55 for Houston Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): New England Revolution W-L-D-W-D; Houston Dynamo W-D-D-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for New England Revolution and 1.16 for Houston Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New England Revolution rate 0.71 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Houston Dynamo rate 0.60 and 1.14.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for New England Revolution against 1.16 for Houston Dynamo. New England Revolution's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.14 for Houston Dynamo.