Coritiba vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Coritiba 2-1 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Coritiba, 24% draw, 25% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Coritiba at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coritiba vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Pedro MoriscoG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55Jacy MaranhãoD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 19Sebastian GomezM
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 7Joaquín LavegaM
- 10JosuéM
- 77Breno LopesM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 17Brian OcampoF
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 3MaiconD
- 13KeillerG
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 50Vitor Gonçalves TissiM
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 98AndersonG
- 26EvertonD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 21KauanD
- 12FernandoD
- 27CamiloM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 70Rubens TadeuM
- 22MaxM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoF
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva de OliveiraF
- 94Kevin RamírezF
- 29Franco RossiF
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 97ÊnioM
- 30MatheusG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 19David AntunesM
Form going into Coritiba vs Chapecoense
Coritiba
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026
- D0-0away to RB Bragantino26 July 2026
- L1-3Palmeiras22 July 2026
Chapecoense
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
- L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | -35 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Chapecoense
- 11 February 2026Chapecoense 3–3 CoritibaSerie A
- 9 August 2025Coritiba 0–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 12 April 2025Chapecoense 1–2 CoritibaSerie B
- 17 November 2024Chapecoense 2–1 CoritibaSerie B
- 27 July 2024Coritiba 1–0 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 3 December 2017Chapecoense 2–1 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Chapecoense
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Coritiba beat Chapecoense 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Coritiba at 51%. The goals: Tiago Coser 31' for Coritiba, Pedro Rocha 82' for Coritiba, Tulio 90+5' for Chapecoense. On expected goals it finished 1.27–0.38.