Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Tucuman 1-2 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Atletico Tucuman, 25% draw, 20% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Tucuman at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. IngolottiG
- 3M. VillaD
- 26C. D. Ferreira NamanduD
- 36L. VallejoD
- 21I. GalvanD
- 5J. FernandezM
- 11R. TesuriM
- 31L. GodoyM
- 10N. FrancoM
- 23N. LamendolaM
- 18R. RuizF
- 25T. DursoG
- 17J. RodriguezD
- 14A. CaneloF
- 24L. Di PlacidoD
- 6G. FerrariD
- 27R. GranilloF
- 8E. HamM
- 28G. CompagnucciD
- 45K. OrtizM
- 12T. AyalaG
- 8S. SalleD
- 44R. OrihuelaD
- 2J. InsaurraldeD
- 3L. SuarezD
- 19J. ContreraM
- 15C. ZabalaM
- 16M. MartinezM
- 21J. MavillaM
- 27J. MarabelF
- 24J. HerreraF
- 1I. ArboledaG
- 7P. MagninF
- 20U. GimenezD
- 23E. GimenezM
- 10J. RenteriaM
- 9Diego ChurinF
- 11G. GonzalezF
- 5M. GarciaM
- 6G. ArturiaD
Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin
Atletico Tucuman
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Huracan4 August 2026
- W2-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago31 July 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia26 July 2026
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Independiente Rivadavia3 August 2026
- L2-3away to Banfield28 July 2026
- L2-3Argentinos Juniors23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin
- 8 February 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 August 2025Sarmiento Junin 2–2 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 February 2025Atletico Tucuman 5–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 November 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 June 2023Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 July 2022Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Atletico Tucuman and Sarmiento Junin
Atletico Tucuman
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarmiento Junin won 2–1 at Atletico Tucuman. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Tucuman at 55% and given a win for Sarmiento Junin 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: J. Marabel (penalty) 69' for Sarmiento Junin, J. Mavilla 71' for Sarmiento Junin, L. Vallejo 81' for Atletico Tucuman. On expected goals it finished 0.72–1.41.