Atletico Tucuman
vs
Sarmiento Junin
The model makes it 55% Atletico Tucuman, 25% draw, 20% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 1.70, Sarmiento Junin 0.91.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin
- 8 February 2026Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 August 2025Sarmiento Junin 2–2 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 February 2025Atletico Tucuman 5–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 November 2024Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 June 2023Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 July 2022Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel8 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Tucuman carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.51 for Sarmiento Junin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atletico Tucuman D-W-D-W-D; Sarmiento Junin W-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.91 for Sarmiento Junin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Tucuman rate 0.62 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarmiento Junin rate 0.73 and 1.45.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Tucuman the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman against 0.91 for Sarmiento Junin. Atletico Tucuman's attack/defence rating is 0.62/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.45 for Sarmiento Junin.