Atletico Paranaense
vs
Bahia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Bahia
The model makes it 34% Atletico Paranaense, 27% draw, 39% Bahia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.62, Bahia 1.80.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Atletico Paranaense wins, grey are draws, red are Bahia wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
Bahia
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
- W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
- 1 April 2026Bahia 3–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 24 November 2024Bahia 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 10 July 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–3 BahiaSerie A
- 12 November 2023Bahia 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 16 July 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 12 July 2022Atletico Paranaense 2–1 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Bahia
- Luciano Juba8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Paranaense carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.85 for Bahia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.80 for Bahia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Paranaense rate 0.92 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bahia rate 1.08 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico Paranaense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Paranaense a 0.4% chance of the title and Bahia 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense against 1.8 for Bahia. Atletico Paranaense's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.08 for Bahia.