20 September 2026, 22:30 UTC

Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result

Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Atletico Paranaense, 27% draw, 41% Bahia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bahia at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Paranaense95%Draw5%Bahia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lucas Esquivelassist: Kerwin Vargas
16'
26'
⚽erick pulga
30'
Nicolas Acevedo
Juan Aguirre
38'
Arthur Dias
45'
🔁Leonardo Caetano Silvaout: jorge rivaldo
45'
🔁Juan Aguirreout: Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
45'
64'
🔁Erick Luis Conrado Carvalhoout: Jean Lucas
64'
🔁Ademirout: Kauê Furquim
⚽jorge rivaldoassist: Kerwin Vargas
69'
73'
🔁Nicolas Acevedoout: Caio Alexandre
74'
Kauê Furquim
🔁Kerwin Vargasout: Bruno Zapelli
79'
🔁Gilbertoout: Gilberto Junior
80'
85'
🔁Alejo Velizout: Everaldo Stum
85'
Rodrigo Nestor
85'
🔁Rodrigo Nestorout: Éverton Ribeiro
jorge rivaldo
89'
Odair Hellmann
90'
90+1'
•Everaldo Stum
90+5'
⚽Everaldo Stum (pen)
Odair Hellmann
90+6'

Match stats — Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia

60%Possession40%
11Shots10
6On target3
6Corners3

Line-ups

Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
  • 1MycaelG
  • 25DantasD
  • 33J. AguirreD
  • 4Arthur DiasD
  • 12GilbertoM
  • 16JádsonM
  • 14Luiz GustavoM
  • 37L. EsquivelM
  • 21LeozinhoM
  • 7S. MendozaM
  • 18K. VargasF
Substitutes
  • 53DuduM
  • 23SantosG
  • 22C. TeránD
  • 47ChiquetiM
  • 5FelipinhoD
  • 10B. ZapelliM
  • 2GilbertoD
  • 3LéoD
  • 6DerikD
Coach: Odair Hellmann
Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 4KanuD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 14ErickM
  • 5N. AcevedoM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 7AdemirF
  • 9A. VélizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 10Éverton RibeiroM
  • 31Roman GomezD
  • 17G. HerreraG
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 57Çağatay YılmazF
  • 3Marco MorenoD
  • 77Ruan PabloF
  • 23M. SanabriaF
  • 12Willian JoséF
Coach: Rogério Ceni

Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia

Atletico Paranaense

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Cruzeiro6 September 2026
  • D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
  • D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Remo14 September 2026
  • W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
  • W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Paranaense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense.
  • Bahia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bahia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bahia won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Atletico Paranaense3315995040+1054
6Bahia33141184842+653

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia

  • 1 April 2026Bahia 3–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 24 November 2024Bahia 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 10 July 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–3 BahiaSerie A
  • 12 November 2023Bahia 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
  • 16 July 2023Atletico Paranaense 2–0 BahiaSerie A

The full Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia record →

Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Bahia

Atletico Paranaense

GoalsAssists

  • K. Viveros213

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba111

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Paranaense beat Bahia 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bahia at 41% and given a win for Atletico Paranaense 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Lucas Esquivel 16' for Atletico Paranaense, erick pulga 26' for Bahia, jorge rivaldo 69' for Atletico Paranaense. Sent off: Odair Hellmann (Atletico Paranaense) 90+6'.

How the call on Atletico Paranaense v Bahia has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Atletico Paranaense's chance of winning, down 11 points.

  1. Atletico Paranaense win32%▼ −11
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Bahia win41%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.