Atletico Mineiro vs Santos Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Santos.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Atletico Mineiro, 27% draw, 27% Santos — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Santos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 21A. FrancoM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 15K. CastañoM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 18T. BorbasF
- 19ReinierM
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 40VitãoD
- 53Pedro LemosD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 27A. MindaF
- 92DuduF
- 31RobertG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 1DiógenesG
- 23RodineiD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 15Willian ArãoD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 32B. RollheiserM
- 7EvertonM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 81S. PierriM
- 45LimaM
- 14Luan PeresD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 34João PauloG
- 30M. TercerosM
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Santos
Atletico Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Atletico Paranaense8 October 2026
- D1-1Chapecoense19 September 2026
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
Santos
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Flamengo8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
- W2-1Cruzeiro13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Mineiro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Mineiro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Mineiro.
- Santos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 50 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Santos
- 16 September 2026Atletico Mineiro 4–2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 9 September 2026Santos 2–0 Atletico MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 11 April 2026Santos 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 14 September 2025Atletico Mineiro 1–1 SantosSerie A
- 17 April 2025Santos 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Santos
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro beat Santos 2–1. The model had made a win for Atletico Mineiro its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gabriel Barbosa 88' for Santos, Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza 90+1' for Atletico Mineiro, Thiago Borbas 90+7' for Atletico Mineiro. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Mineiro these chances to finish in the top four: 12.4% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.4%.
For Santos the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 4.1% going in: 7.9% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 1.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.8%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico Mineiro v Santos has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Atletico Mineiro's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Atletico Mineiro win46%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Santos win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.