Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gimnasia La Plata, 23% draw, 25% River Plate — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Nelson InsfránG
- 31Bautista Barros SchelottoD
- 4Renzo GiampaoliD
- 21Enzo MartínezD
- 24Pedro SilvaD
- 25Alexis SteimbachM
- 5Ignacio MiramónM
- 18Mateo SeoaneM
- 8Nacho FernándezM
- 11Jeremías MerloM
- 29Agustín AuzmendiF
- 16Augusto MaxM
- 9Maximiliano ZalazarF
- 35Juan Cruz CortazzoD
- 10Nicolás Barros SchelottoM
- 15Harlen CastilloG
- 43Mariano OjedaD
- 37Jeremías Ezequiel LangaD
- 33Pablo AguiarM
- 7Manuel PanaroF
- 41Santiago BeltránG
- 29Gonzalo MontielD
- 28Lucas Martínez QuartaD
- 30Nicolás OtamendiD
- 21Marcos AcuñaD
- 8Mauro ArambarriM
- 44Lucas SilvaM
- 35Joaquín FreitasM
- 10Ángel CorreaM
- 26Tomás GalvánM
- 18Lucas BeltránF
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 31Facundo GonzálezD
- 19Rafael BorréF
- 11Facundo ColidioF
- 25Lautaro PereyraM
- 33Ezequiel CenturiónG
- 13Lautaro RiveroD
- 20Giovanni GonzálezD
- 36Ulises GiménezD
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata
- L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026
River Plate
- L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
- 14 May 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 January 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2025River Plate 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 April 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 March 2024River Plate 3–1 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
River Plate
- S. Driussi6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.