Gimnasia La Plata
vs
River Plate
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Gimnasia La Plata, 18% draw, 15% River Plate — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 2.53, River Plate 1.13.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata had 26% possession, 14 shots (3 on target), 3 corners, 2.01 expected goals; River Plate had 74% possession, 10 shots (3 on target), 8 corners, 0.3 expected goals.
Goals: Alexis Steimbach 80' for Gimnasia La Plata.
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
- 14 May 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 January 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2025River Plate 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 April 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 March 2024River Plate 3–1 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 1.13 for River Plate. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.3 for River Plate.