Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 River Plate.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gimnasia La Plata, 23% draw, 25% River Plate — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Nelson InsfránG
- 31Bautista Barros SchelottoD
- 4Renzo GiampaoliD
- 21Enzo MartínezD
- 24Pedro SilvaD
- 25Alexis SteimbachM
- 5Ignacio MiramónM
- 18Mateo SeoaneM
- 8Nacho FernándezM
- 11Jeremías MerloM
- 29Agustín AuzmendiF
- 16Augusto MaxM
- 9Maximiliano ZalazarF
- 35Juan Cruz CortazzoD
- 10Nicolás Barros SchelottoM
- 15Harlen CastilloG
- 43Mariano OjedaD
- 37Jeremías Ezequiel LangaD
- 33Pablo AguiarM
- 7Manuel PanaroF
- 41Santiago BeltránG
- 29Gonzalo MontielD
- 28Lucas Martínez QuartaD
- 30Nicolás OtamendiD
- 21Marcos AcuñaD
- 8Mauro ArambarriM
- 44Lucas SilvaM
- 35Joaquín FreitasM
- 10Ángel CorreaM
- 26Tomás GalvánM
- 18Lucas BeltránF
- 15Fausto VeraM
- 31Facundo GonzálezD
- 19Rafael BorréF
- 11Facundo ColidioF
- 25Lautaro PereyraM
- 33Ezequiel CenturiónG
- 13Lautaro RiveroD
- 20Giovanni GonzálezD
- 36Ulises GiménezD
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026
River Plate
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Barracas Central25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 25 |
| 4 | River Plate | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs River Plate
- 14 May 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 January 2026River Plate 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2025River Plate 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 April 2025Gimnasia La Plata 0–3 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 March 2024River Plate 3–1 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and River Plate
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
- G. Montiel73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia La Plata beat River Plate 1–0. The model had made a win for Gimnasia La Plata its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Alexis Steimbach 80' for Gimnasia La Plata. On expected goals it finished 2.01–0.30.