Londrina
vs
Cuiaba
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Londrina 2–1 Cuiaba
The model makes it 36% Londrina, 29% draw, 35% Cuiaba — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Londrina 1.42, Cuiaba 1.37.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Londrina and Cuiaba are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Londrina are 18th on 28 points from 31 games; Cuiaba are 10th on 46 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Londrina are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Criciuma.
- Cuiaba have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Ponte Preta.
- Last 3 meetings: Londrina 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 June 2026, ended Cuiaba 2–2 Londrina.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Londrina vs Cuiaba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Londrina at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Londrina vs Cuiaba
Londrina
- L0-2Criciuma2 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vila Nova25 September 2026
- L1-2Fortaleza EC20 September 2026
- W6-0Ponte Preta15 September 2026
- W2-1away to São Bernardo10 September 2026
Cuiaba
- W2-0Ponte Preta3 October 2026
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novorizontino13 September 2026
- W3-0Athletic Club MG8 September 2026
What these results say
- Londrina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cuiaba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Londrina | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 28 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Londrina vs Cuiaba
- 25 June 2026Cuiaba 2–2 LondrinaSerie B
- 5 October 2019Cuiaba 0–1 LondrinaSerie B
- 7 June 2019Londrina 1–0 CuiabaSerie B
Leading scorers: Londrina and Cuiaba
Londrina
- Bruno Santos11 goals3 assists
Cuiaba
- Kauan6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Londrina carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.43 for Cuiaba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Londrina and 1.37 for Cuiaba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Londrina rate 0.64 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cuiaba rate 0.58 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cuiaba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Londrina the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Londrina against 1.37 for Cuiaba. Londrina's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.36 for Cuiaba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Londrina at home · Cuiaba away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Londrina 31, Cuiaba 31.
Londrina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Cuiaba have let in 4 there.
Cuiaba score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Londrina have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Londrina
- at CRB24 Oct · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs America Mineiro31 Oct · Serie Bwin 52%
- at Botafogo SP7 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Cuiaba
- at America Mineiro24 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs São Bernardo31 Oct · Serie Bwin 40%
- vs Juventude7 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.