Goias
vs
Nautico Recife
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Goias 2–1 Nautico Recife
The model makes it 39% Goias, 29% draw, 32% Nautico Recife — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Goias 1.53, Nautico Recife 1.31.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Goias are 12th on 42 points from 31 games; Nautico Recife are 13th on 42 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Goias have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Novorizontino.
- Nautico Recife have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortaleza EC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Nautico Recife 0–1 Goias.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Goias vs Nautico Recife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Goias at 39% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Goias vs Nautico Recife
Goias
- L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Goianiense26 September 2026
- W2-1Avai20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botafogo SP14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Vila Nova10 September 2026
Nautico Recife
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
- D3-3Operario-PR15 September 2026
- L1-2away to America Mineiro9 September 2026
What these results say
- Goias conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Goias | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 42 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Goias vs Nautico Recife
- 28 June 2026Nautico Recife 0–1 GoiasSerie B
- 6 October 2021Nautico Recife 3–2 GoiasSerie B
- 10 July 2021Goias 0–1 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 7 October 2017Goias 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 20 June 2017Nautico Recife 2–3 GoiasSerie B
- 8 November 2016Nautico Recife 1–0 GoiasSerie B
Leading scorers: Goias and Nautico Recife
Goias
- Kadu9 goals1 assist
Nautico Recife
- Vinícius9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Goias carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.34 for Nautico Recife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Goias and 1.31 for Nautico Recife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Goias rate 0.53 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nautico Recife rate 0.64 and 1.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Goias the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Goias against 1.31 for Nautico Recife. Goias's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.78 for Nautico Recife.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Goias at home · Nautico Recife away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Goias 31, Nautico Recife 31.
Goias score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 8 there.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Goias have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Goias
- at Ceara24 Oct · Serie Bwin 20%
- vs CRB31 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Ponte Preta7 Nov · Serie Bwin 61%
Nautico Recife
- at Juventude24 Oct · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Avai31 Oct · Serie Bwin 47%
- vs CRB7 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.