Fortaleza EC
vs
Atletico Goianiense
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Fortaleza EC 1–0 Atletico Goianiense
The model makes it 52% Fortaleza EC, 26% draw, 22% Atletico Goianiense — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortaleza EC 1.77, Atletico Goianiense 0.98.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Fortaleza EC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Fortaleza EC's rating is built from 38 Brazilian Serie A matches and Atletico Goianiense's from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fortaleza EC are 4th on 60 points from 34 games; Atletico Goianiense are 6th on 54 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Sport Recife.
- Atletico Goianiense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ponte Preta.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Fortaleza EC.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza EC at 52% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense
Fortaleza EC
- W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026
- D2-2CRB12 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
Atletico Goianiense
- D1-1away to Ponte Preta16 October 2026
- D1-1Sport Recife11 October 2026
- L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
- W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Goias26 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Goianiense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Goianiense had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 60 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense
- 12 July 2026Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 5 December 2024Atletico Goianiense 3–1 Fortaleza ECSerie A
- 21 July 2024Fortaleza EC 3–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
- 6 November 2022Fortaleza EC 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
- 17 July 2022Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Fortaleza ECSerie A
- 2 October 2021Fortaleza EC 0–3 Atletico GoianienseSerie A
Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and Atletico Goianiense
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton83
Atletico Goianiense
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Coutinho130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortaleza EC carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.45 for Atletico Goianiense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.98 for Atletico Goianiense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortaleza EC rate 0.79 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Goianiense rate 0.62 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortaleza EC a 20% chance of the title and Atletico Goianiense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Fortaleza EC against 0.98 for Atletico Goianiense. Fortaleza EC's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.38 for Atletico Goianiense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortaleza EC at home · Atletico Goianiense away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Fortaleza EC 34, Atletico Goianiense 34.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Atletico Goianiense have let in 7 there.
Atletico Goianiense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Fortaleza EC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Fortaleza EC
- at Novorizontino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Vila Nova14 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
Atletico Goianiense
- at Athletic Club MG8 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Cuiaba14 Nov · Serie Bwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.