Torpedo Kutaisi
vs
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Torpedo Kutaisi 1–0 Rustavi
The model makes it 37% Torpedo Kutaisi, 31% draw, 32% Rustavi — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Torpedo Kutaisi 1.23, Rustavi 1.10.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Torpedo Kutaisi are 6th on 36 points from 27 games; Rustavi are 3rd on 46 points from 27 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Torpedo Kutaisi have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Dinamo Batumi.
- Rustavi have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to FC Iberia 1999.
- Last 6 meetings: Rustavi 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Rustavi 1–0 Torpedo Kutaisi.
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
- L2-3away to Dinamo Batumi20 September 2026
- W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
Rustavi
- L0-2FC Iberia 199921 September 2026
- W1-0away to Meshakhte14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spaeri9 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Samgurali30 August 2026
What these results say
- Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rustavi had two goals or fewer.
- Rustavi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rustavi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 36 |
| 3 | Rustavi | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi
- 7 August 2026Rustavi 1–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 5 May 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 1–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 7 March 2026Rustavi 1–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 12 October 2022Rustavi 2–4 Torpedo KutaisiDavid Kipiani Cup
- 27 October 2019Rustavi 2–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 11 August 2019Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Torpedo Kutaisi and Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
- K. Andrić8 goals2 assists
- G. Arabidze5 goals8 assists
- Felipe Pires3 goals
Rustavi
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torpedo Kutaisi carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.32 for Rustavi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.10 for Rustavi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torpedo Kutaisi rate 0.61 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rustavi rate 0.44 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rustavi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 0.1% chance of the title and Rustavi 14.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Torpedo Kutaisi against 1.10 for Rustavi. Torpedo Kutaisi's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.36 for Rustavi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torpedo Kutaisi at home · Rustavi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Torpedo Kutaisi 27, Rustavi 27.
Torpedo Kutaisi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Rustavi have let in 6 there.
Rustavi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Torpedo Kutaisi have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Torpedo Kutaisi
- at FC Iberia 199926 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 31%
- vs Dila2 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 37%
- at Meshakhte7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 45%
- at Dinamo Tbilisi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 30%
Rustavi
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi23 Oct · Erovnuli Ligawin 35%
- at Gagra1 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 39%
- vs Samgurali7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
- at Dinamo Batumi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.