Gagra vs Meshakhte Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Gagra 1-1 Meshakhte.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Gagra, 34% draw, 32% Meshakhte — fair odds of 2.94, 2.94 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gagra at 34% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gagra vs Meshakhte
Line-ups
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 21A. Peikrishvili
- 25WandersonM
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 9D. MujiriF
- 13L. Gobejishvili
- 15N. Slavitski
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
- 34L. Chikhladze
- 35A. Dmitrievich
- 29L. ShovnadzeG
- 23B. ShubitidzeM
- 31Eric PimentelD
- 38I. ZotkoD
- 40L. UgrekhelidzeD
- 13G. BurduliD
- 26B. GabiskiriaD
- 27G. KantariaM
- 22T. SikaloM
- 30M. PyrogovM
- 9I. SikharulidzeF
- 1L. TkeshelashviliG
- 7E. JijavadzeM
- 8G. JamarauliM
- 11M. KvirkviaF
- 16G. GegiaD
- 18T. PatsatsiaM
- 20L. KurdadzeD
- 21G. KvirkveliaM
- 24S. Chkhetiani
Form going into Gagra vs Meshakhte
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-1Rustavi14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 30 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 30 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 49 | -26 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gagra vs Meshakhte
- 18 June 2026Meshakhte 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 27 April 2026Gagra 1–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 20 July 2025Meshakhte 2–1 GagraDavid Kipiani Cup
- 21 November 2017Gagra 4–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
- 14 September 2017Meshakhte 0–2 GagraErovnuli Liga 2
- 15 June 2017Gagra 2–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
The result against the call
Gagra and Meshakhte drew 1–1. The goals: Z. Tchavtchanidze 25' for Gagra, M. Kvirkvia 83' for Meshakhte.
How the call on Gagra v Meshakhte has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 34% / 34% / 32%: the biggest move is Gagra's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Gagra win34%▼ −6
- Draw34%▲ +3
- Meshakhte win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.