FC Anyang
vs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: FC Anyang 0–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC
The model makes it 32% FC Anyang, 30% draw, 38% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Anyang 1.17, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.39.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Anyang wins, grey are draws, red are Ulsan Hyundai FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
FC Anyang
- D1-1away to Gwangju FC13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen9 September 2026
- L0-3Gangwon FC6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bucheon FC 199529 August 2026
- W2-1Incheon United26 August 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
- W1-0FC Seoul8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC5 September 2026
- W3-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Anyang | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 35 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 38 | +6 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC
FC Anyang
- Airton5 goals
- Matheus Oliveira2 goals2 assists
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello6 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong4 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Anyang carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.55 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for FC Anyang and 1.39 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Anyang rate 0.57 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.69 and 1.26.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Anyang against 1.39 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. FC Anyang's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.26 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.