FC Iberia 1999
vs
Dila
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Iberia 1999 1–2 Dila
The model makes it 23% FC Iberia 1999, 23% draw, 54% Dila — fair odds of 4.35, 4.35 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Iberia 1999 1.42, Dila 2.82.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Iberia 1999 wins, grey are draws, red are Dila wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Dila
FC Iberia 1999
- W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Batumi9 September 2026
- W2-1Samgurali5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gagra31 August 2026
- L3-4away to Torpedo Kutaisi15 August 2026
Dila
- D2-2Dinamo Batumi13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
- W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 August 2026
- D2-2Torpedo Kutaisi22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Iberia 1999 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 40 |
| 5 | Dila | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Iberia 1999 carry a model rating of 5.94 against 6.47 for Dila. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 2.82 for Dila. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.43 in attack and 2.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dila rate 0.88 and 2.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Iberia 1999, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Iberia 1999 a 10.5% chance of the title and Dila 1.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dila the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 against 2.82 for Dila. FC Iberia 1999's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/2.03 for Dila.