Dinamo Batumi
vs
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Batumi 2–0 Torpedo Kutaisi
The model makes it 55% Dinamo Batumi, 27% draw, 18% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 1.82, 3.70 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Batumi 1.98, Torpedo Kutaisi 0.68.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Batumi vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Dinamo Batumi wins, grey are draws, red are Torpedo Kutaisi wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Batumi at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Batumi vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Dinamo Batumi
- D2-2away to Dila13 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 19999 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rustavi4 September 2026
- W3-0Spaeri30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Meshakhte21 August 2026
Torpedo Kutaisi
- W3-2Samgurali14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra10 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Tbilisi6 September 2026
- L0-2Meshakhte31 August 2026
- D2-2away to Dila22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Dinamo Batumi and Torpedo Kutaisi
Dinamo Batumi
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Torpedo Kutaisi
- K. Andrić8 goals2 assists
- G. Arabidze5 goals8 assists
- Felipe Pires3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dinamo Batumi carry a model rating of 6.36 against 5.95 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Dinamo Batumi and 0.68 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Batumi rate 0.47 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torpedo Kutaisi rate 0.43 and 2.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Batumi a 22.4% chance of the title and Torpedo Kutaisi 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Dinamo Batumi against 0.68 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Dinamo Batumi's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.59 for Torpedo Kutaisi.