Fredrikstad
vs
Tromso
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Fredrikstad 1–2 Tromso
The model makes it 35% Fredrikstad, 29% draw, 36% Tromso — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.35, Tromso 1.39.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Fredrikstad and Tromso are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tromso at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Fredrikstad
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
Tromso
- W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
- L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fredrikstad.
- Tromso failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 28 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
- 15 March 2026Tromso 4–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 2 August 2025Tromso 0–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 29 June 2025Fredrikstad 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 29 May 2024Tromso 3–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 25 May 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Tromso
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Tromso
- H. Larsen10 goals3 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fredrikstad carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.61 for Tromso. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.39 for Tromso. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fredrikstad rate 0.57 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tromso rate 0.81 and 1.32.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tromso the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 1.39 for Tromso. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.32 for Tromso.