Fredrikstad vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Fredrikstad, 28% draw, 36% Tromso — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fredrikstad at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 12U. FredriksenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 11L. WestF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 24L. OwusuM
- 5S. RafnD
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 29G. WessehM
- 27Chris Irénée Ntamack PondyD
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 37S. InnværD
- 4V. SkjærvikD
- 21L. HienD
- 30I. VådebuD
- 29A. WarnerydD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 70M. BjørloM
- 10T. NyhammerF
- 22H. LarsenF
- 7L. Olden LarsenF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 27M. MikkelsenD
- 24V. OsujiD
- 33M. JattaD
- 15V. ErlienF
- 17I. DahlqvistM
- 9D. BrautF
- 8J. GrundtM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Fredrikstad
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
Tromso
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Ham-Kam20 September 2026
- L3-5away to Rosenborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Kristiansund BK6 September 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton27 August 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fredrikstad.
- Tromso failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Tromso
- 15 March 2026Tromso 4–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 2 August 2025Tromso 0–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 29 June 2025Fredrikstad 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 29 May 2024Tromso 3–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 25 May 2024Fredrikstad 0–0 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Tromso
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fredrikstad and Tromso drew 1–1. The goals: Troy Engseth Nyhammer 26' for Tromso, Fredrik Holme 67' for Fredrikstad. Sent off: Leon Hien (Tromso) 50'. On expected goals it finished 1.55–1.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tromso a 65.6% chance to finish in the top four: 77.4% after a win, 63.5% after a draw, 56.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 63.5%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.