11 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo Primera División prediction & result

Coquimbo
Referee: Jose Cabero
Full time5 – 2

Final score: Coquimbo Unido 5-2 Colo Colo.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Coquimbo Unido, 26% draw, 42% Colo Colo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Colo Colo at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coquimbo Unido99%Draw1%Colo Colo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nicolas Johansenassist: Benjamin Chandia
2'
Cristian Zavala
15'
22'
⚽Marcelo Correa
⚽Nicolas Johansenassist: Guido Vadalá
24'
⚽Guido Vadaláassist: Cristian Zavala
28'
Diego Sanchez
32'
35'
Joaquín Sosa
45'
🔁Álvaro Madridout: Marcos Bolados
45'
🔁Tomás Alarcónout: Lautaro Pastrán
🔁Nicolas Johansenout: Luis Riveros
45'
45'
🔁Joaquín Sosaout: Iván Román
47'
⚽Arturo Vidalassist: Jeyson Rojas
⚽Benjamin Chandia
58'
🔁Cristian Zavalaout: Sebastián Cabrera
60'
61'
Iván Román
🔁Benjamin Chandiaout: Lucas Pratto
68'
🔁Alejandro Camargoout: Salvador Cordero
68'
73'
🔁Leandro Hernándezout: Felipe Raipán
🔁Manuel Fernándezout: Lukas Soza
75'
78'
🔁Diego Ulloaout: Francisco Marchant
⚽Lucas Prattoassist: Guido Vadalá
81'
88'
Marcelo Correa

Match stats — Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo

29%Possession71%
17Shots22
9On target4
5Corners11
3.15xG1.61

Goals against chances

Coquimbo Unido5 from 3.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
Colo Colo2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coquimbo Unido 4-2-3-1
  • 13D. SánchezG
  • 17F. SalinasD
  • 2B. GazzoloD
  • 3M. FernándezD
  • 16J. CornejoD
  • 8A. CamargoM
  • 7S. GalaniM
  • 15C. ZavalaM
  • 10G. VadaláM
  • 30B. ChandíaM
  • 9N. JohansenF
Substitutes
  • 1G. FloresG
  • 14S. CorderoM
  • 28S. CabreraD
  • 31Dixon PereiraF
  • 12L. PrattoF
  • 27L. RiverosF
  • 18P. RodriguezM
  • 26L. SozaD
  • 23M. ZepedaM
Coach: Hernán Caputto
Colo Colo 3-4-2-1
  • 25G. MaureiraG
  • 2J. VillagraD
  • 23A. VidalD
  • 4J. SosaD
  • 28J. RojasM
  • 6T. AlarcónM
  • 5V. MéndezM
  • 26D. UlloaM
  • 8Á. MadridM
  • 24L. HernándezM
  • 9J. CorreaF
Substitutes
  • 11M. BoladosF
  • 54G DíazM
  • 42C. DiazM
  • 7F. MarchantM
  • 10L. PastránF
  • 50F. RaipanF
  • 17I. RománD
  • 21É. WiembergD
  • 29VózinhaG
Coach: F. Ortiz

Form going into Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo

Coquimbo Unido

Primera División

  • L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026

Colo Colo

Primera División

  • D1-1Concepción13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Coquimbo Unido26115103935+438
1Colo Colo2719445930+2961

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo

  • 13 May 2026Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Colo ColoCopa De La Liga
  • 3 May 2026Colo Colo 3–1 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
  • 21 March 2026Colo Colo 1–1 Coquimbo UnidoCopa De La Liga
  • 19 October 2025Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
  • 26 April 2025Colo Colo 2–0 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División

Leading scorers: Coquimbo Unido and Colo Colo

Coquimbo Unido

GoalsAssists

  • N. Johansen90

Colo Colo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Correa186
  • M. Romero81
  • L. Hernández74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Coquimbo Unido beat Colo Colo 5–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Colo Colo at 42% and given a win for Coquimbo Unido 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolas Johansen 2' for Coquimbo Unido, Marcelo Correa 22' for Colo Colo, Nicolas Johansen 24' for Coquimbo Unido, Guido Vadalá 28' for Coquimbo Unido, Arturo Vidal 47' for Colo Colo, Benjamin Chandia 58' for Coquimbo Unido, Lucas Pratto 81' for Coquimbo Unido. On expected goals it finished 3.15–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coquimbo Unido a 2.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.8% after a draw, 3.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

For Colo Colo the question was the chance to win the league, 97.8% going in: 99.4% after a win, 98.3% after a draw, 96.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Coquimbo Unido v Colo Colo has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Colo Colo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Coquimbo Unido win32%=
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Colo Colo win42%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.