Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aalesund, 26% draw, 32% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Aalesund at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 7K. NessøD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 3Ó. GuðmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. ChristensenM
- 18E. HagenM
- 15E. OsenbrochM
- 8I. SkotheimF
- 27H. M. ReedF
- 45P. AuklandD
- 19S. KartumM
- 10M. KristensenM
- 26T. LarsenG
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 9P. NgongoF
- 16J. ØrsahlD
- 25U. SyversenD
- 38T. LeikangerM
- 87L. ØyG
- 32E. WichneD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 24S. RostedD
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 10S. SørliM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 17N. WilliamsM
- 33A. NibeF
- 11D. KarlsbakkF
- 6A. SherM
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 2M. LodeD
- 1J. PrytsG
- 5L. HøylandD
- 21A. HiimD
- 22V. HalvorsenM
- 18Bop GueyeM
- 7Camil Mmaee NwamebenM
Form going into Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
All competitions we cover
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
What these results say
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 22 October 2023Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 29 May 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 11 September 2022Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 22 May 2022Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
- 13 September 2020Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4–2 at Aalesund. The model had leaned towards a win for Aalesund at 42% and given a win for Sarpsborg 08 FF 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Eirik Wichne 5' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Sondre Sorlie 51' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Noa Williams 54' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Olaus Jair Skarsem (penalty) 65' for Sarpsborg 08 FF, Elias Kristoffersen Hagen 70' for Aalesund, Elias Kristoffersen Hagen 74' for Aalesund. On expected goals it finished 1.76–2.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aalesund a 42.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.8% after a win, 45.9% after a draw, 56.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.4%, 13.6 points higher than before the match.
For Sarpsborg 08 FF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.9% going in: 1.3% after a win, 4.3% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.3%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08 FF has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Aalesund's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Aalesund win42%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Sarpsborg 08 FF win32%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.