Aalesund
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Aalesund 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
The model makes it 39% Aalesund, 28% draw, 33% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aalesund 1.64, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalesund at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-3KFUM Oslo18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad13 September 2026
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
What these results say
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 22 October 2023Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 29 May 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 11 September 2022Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 22 May 2022Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
- 13 September 2020Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 2 August 2020Sarpsborg 08 FF 4–0 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Aalesund
- M. Christensen8 goals2 assists
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D. Karlsbakk7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aalesund carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.47 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Aalesund and 1.38 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aalesund rate 0.72 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.58 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sarpsborg 08 FF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aalesund the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Aalesund against 1.38 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Aalesund's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.27 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.