Start
vs
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Start 2–1 Ham-Kam
The model makes it 39% Start, 28% draw, 33% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Start 1.65, Ham-Kam 1.41.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Start vs Ham-Kam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Start at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Start vs Ham-Kam
Start
- L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
- W2-0Brann13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
- W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
- L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026
Ham-Kam
- L2-3away to Tromso20 September 2026
- L1-5Molde13 September 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg5 September 2026
- D2-2Kristiansund BK30 August 2026
- L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
What these results say
- Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ham-Kam did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Start vs Ham-Kam
- 26 April 2026Ham-Kam 2–1 StartEliteserien
- 20 February 2023Start 2–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2023Ham-Kam 1–2 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 29 August 2021Ham-Kam 3–2 Start1. Division
- 5 July 2021Start 1–4 Ham-Kam1. Division
- 22 September 2019Ham-Kam 4–0 Start1. Division
Leading scorers: Start and Ham-Kam
Start
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Ham-Kam
- M. Alassane Niang6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Start carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.35 for Ham-Kam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Start and 1.41 for Ham-Kam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Start rate 0.55 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ham-Kam rate 0.62 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ham-Kam, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Start the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Start against 1.41 for Ham-Kam. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.67 for Ham-Kam.