11 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Start vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansand
Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Start 2-4 Ham-Kam.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Start, 26% draw, 33% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Start at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Start0%Draw1%Ham-Kam99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
•Fredrik Sjolstad
36'
⚽Luc Mares (pen)
⚽John Olav Norheimassist: Sander Aske Granheim
43'
53'
⚽Loris Mettlerassist: Patrick Metcalfe
🔁Hakon Lorentzenout: Nikolaos Koutsakos
61'
🔁Mikael Uglandout: Eirik Schulze
62'
69'
🔁Danilo Al-Saedout: David Benjamin
69'
🔁Fredrik Sjolstadout: Aksel Baran Potur
73'
🔁Duarte Moreiraout: Mohamed Ofkir
74'
⚽Mohamed Ofkirassist: Aksel Baran Potur
🔁Erlend Dahl Reitanout: nikola jojic
75'
🔁Altin Ujkaniout: Fredrik Palerud
75'
82'
🔁João Paulo Rodrigues Barrosout: Ethan Amundsen-Day
🔁Steve Mvoueout: Marius Nordal
84'
90+2'
⚽Mohamed Ofkirassist: Aksel Baran Potur
⚽Erlend Segberg
90+5'

Match stats — Start vs Ham-Kam

57%Possession43%
23Shots17
5On target7
5Corners4
2.08xG2.94

Goals against chances

Start2 from 2.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ham-Kam4 from 2.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Start 5-3-2
  • 26M. SjøengG
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 6J. NorheimD
  • 3A. UjkaniD
  • 12D. DashaevD
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 23E. SegbergM
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 17J. CorneliusF
  • 20H. LorentzenF
Substitutes
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 15M. NordalF
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 11E. SchulzeM
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 37Filip Strømland LienM
  • 35S. SamuyiwaM
Coach: A. Karadas
Ham-Kam 5-3-2
  • 12M. SandbergG
  • 22S. NilsenD
  • 2M. GjoneD
  • 23F. SjølstadD
  • 27João BarrosD
  • 5A. AndresenD
  • 10L. MettlerM
  • 14L. MaresM
  • 26P. MetcalfeM
  • 18Duarte MoreiraF
  • 24D. Al-SaedF
Substitutes
  • 11M. OfkirM
  • 4H. OpsahlD
  • 6W. Osnes-RingenM
  • 13S. ØstraatG
  • 17A. PoturM
  • 19H. UdahlF
  • 7V. JónssonM
  • 28David BenjaminF
  • 3E. Amundsen-DayD
Coach: T. Myhre

Form going into Start vs Ham-Kam

Start

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Sandefjord20 September 2026
  • W2-0Brann13 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
  • W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
  • L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026

Ham-Kam

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Tromso20 September 2026
  • L1-5Molde13 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Rosenborg5 September 2026
  • D2-2Kristiansund BK30 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ham-Kam did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Ham-Kam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Start2654172759-3219
11Ham-Kam2686123853-1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Start vs Ham-Kam

  • 26 April 2026Ham-Kam 2–1 StartEliteserien
  • 20 February 2023Start 2–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 February 2023Ham-Kam 1–2 StartFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 August 2021Ham-Kam 3–2 Start1. Division
  • 5 July 2021Start 1–4 Ham-Kam1. Division

The result against the call

Ham-Kam won 4–2 at Start. The model had leaned towards a win for Start at 41% and given a win for Ham-Kam 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luc Mares (penalty) 36' for Ham-Kam, John Olav Norheim 43' for Start, Loris Mettler 53' for Ham-Kam, Mohamed Ofkir 74' for Ham-Kam, Mohamed Ofkir 90+2' for Ham-Kam, Erlend Segberg 90+5' for Start. On expected goals it finished 2.08–2.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Start a 87.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 81.8% after a win, 91.0% after a draw, 95.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.5%, 7.6 points higher than before the match.

For Ham-Kam the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.4% going in: 21.4% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.4%, 16 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Start v Ham-Kam has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is Start's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Start win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Ham-Kam win33%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.