KFUM Oslo
vs
Valerenga
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: KFUM Oslo 2–1 Valerenga
The model makes it 41% KFUM Oslo, 27% draw, 32% Valerenga — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.86, Valerenga 1.52.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- KFUM Oslo are 10th on 25 points from 21 games; Valerenga are 12th on 23 points from 21 games — Eliteserien.
- KFUM Oslo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Sarpsborg 08 FF.
- Valerenga have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Fredrikstad.
- Last 4 meetings: Valerenga 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Valerenga 2–2 KFUM Oslo.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KFUM Oslo at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
- W3-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 September 2026
- W2-1Aalesund13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
- L1-4away to Start30 August 2026
- D1-1Lillestrom15 August 2026
Valerenga
- D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
- L3-4Molde30 August 2026
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
What these results say
- KFUM Oslo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- KFUM Oslo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for KFUM Oslo.
- Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Valerenga
- 3 May 2026Valerenga 2–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 21 February 2026Valerenga 1–0 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 20 September 2025Valerenga 1–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 26 May 2025KFUM Oslo 0–1 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Valerenga
- L. Haren8 goals2 assists
- C. Lange6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
KFUM Oslo carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.49 for Valerenga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.52 for Valerenga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KFUM Oslo rate 0.62 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valerenga rate 0.80 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KFUM Oslo the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for KFUM Oslo against 1.52 for Valerenga. KFUM Oslo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.67 for Valerenga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KFUM Oslo at home · Valerenga away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: KFUM Oslo 21, Valerenga 21.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
KFUM Oslo
- at Tromso18 Oct · Eliteserienwin 24%
- at Kristiansund BK25 Oct · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Ham-Kam1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
- at Viking8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 16%
- vs Brann22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 32%
Valerenga
- vs Brann18 Oct · Eliteserienwin 33%
- at Bodo/Glimt24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 14%
- vs Tromso1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Kristiansund BK7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 37%
- vs Start21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.