Hammarby FF
vs
Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Hammarby FF 2–1 Djurgardens IF
The model makes it 39% Hammarby FF, 28% draw, 33% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hammarby FF 1.63, Djurgardens IF 1.38.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
Hammarby FF
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
- W2-0Gais23 August 2026
Djurgardens IF
- L1-2IF Elfsborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Gais14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF3 September 2026
- W4-0Mjallby AIF31 August 2026
What these results say
- Hammarby FF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 20 | +29 | 43 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
- 26 April 2026Djurgardens IF 1–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 15 March 2026Hammarby FF 1–0 Djurgardens IFSvenska Cupen
- 14 September 2025Djurgardens IF 3–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 13 April 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 21 October 2024Hammarby FF 2–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 2 June 2024Djurgardens IF 0–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham14 goals3 assists
- V. Lind9 goals11 assists
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien15 goals5 assists
- Bo Åsulv Hegland8 goals14 assists
- C. Rosenquist7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hammarby FF carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.71 for Djurgardens IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Hammarby FF and 1.38 for Djurgardens IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hammarby FF rate 0.88 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Djurgardens IF rate 0.87 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hammarby FF a 9.2% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 4.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Hammarby FF against 1.38 for Djurgardens IF. Hammarby FF's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.14 for Djurgardens IF.