Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Hammarby FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Hammarby FF, 27% draw, 32% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Hammarby FF at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1W. HahnG
- 2E. SkoglundD
- 6I. FofanaD
- 4V. ErikssonD
- 3F. WintherD
- 28F. AdjeiM
- 8M. KarlssonM
- 17A. BoudriM
- 20N. BesaraF
- 7P. AbrahamF
- 9V. LindF
- 27F. JakobssonG
- 45Filip JakobssonM
- 30S. KebbehF
- 24W. ReneckeD
- 5T. TekieM
- 31O. Steinke BranbyD
- 42O. MoczarnyM
- 32Essayas Luvuoss Lwampindy BofuaD
- 35J. RinneG
- 18A. StåhlD
- 5M. TenhoD
- 4J. Une-LarssonD
- 2P. JohanssonD
- 13D. StenssonM
- 20M. SiltanenM
- 8P. ÅslundM
- 16Bo Åsulv HeglandM
- 19J. OkkelsM
- 9K. LienF
- 24M. LarssonM
- 21M. MarquesD
- 14C. RosenquistF
- 6P. LanghoffM
- 15O. FalleniusF
- 28A. AnderssonM
- 7Christos AlmyrasM
- 10Abdul AbdulmalikM
- 30Lukas Henrik JonssonG
Form going into Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
Hammarby FF
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
- L2-3away to AIK Stockholm30 August 2026
- W2-0Gais23 August 2026
Djurgardens IF
All competitions we cover
- L1-2IF Elfsborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Gais14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF3 September 2026
- W4-0Mjallby AIF31 August 2026
What these results say
- Hammarby FF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Djurgardens IF kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby FF | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 58 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 27 | +29 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF
- 26 April 2026Djurgardens IF 1–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 15 March 2026Hammarby FF 1–0 Djurgardens IFSvenska Cupen
- 14 September 2025Djurgardens IF 3–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 13 April 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
- 21 October 2024Hammarby FF 2–0 Djurgardens IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham174
- V. Lind1013
- M. Madjed82
Djurgardens IF
GoalsAssists
- K. Lien166
- Bo Åsulv Hegland1116
- C. Rosenquist81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Djurgardens IF won 1–0 at Hammarby FF. The model had leaned towards a win for Hammarby FF at 41% and given a win for Djurgardens IF 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Bo Åsulv Hegland 45' for Djurgardens IF. On expected goals it finished 0.97–1.40.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hammarby FF a 8.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 12.6% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.3%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
For Djurgardens IF the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 3.3% going in: 7.3% after a win, 2.6% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hammarby FF v Djurgardens IF has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Hammarby FF's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Hammarby FF win41%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Djurgardens IF win32%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.