Lillestrom
vs
Molde
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Lillestrom 2–1 Molde
The model makes it 36% Lillestrom, 28% draw, 36% Molde — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.52, Molde 1.54.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lillestrom and Molde are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lillestrom vs Molde
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Molde
Lillestrom
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
Molde
- L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
- W3-2Tromso16 August 2026
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Molde
- 6 April 2026Molde 0–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 6 October 2024Lillestrom 1–2 MoldeNM Cupen
- 11 August 2024Lillestrom 1–2 MoldeEliteserien
- 7 July 2024Molde 3–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 12 November 2023Molde 4–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 23 April 2023Lillestrom 2–1 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Molde
Lillestrom
- F. Gulbrandsen6 goals1 assists
Molde
- E. Hestad8 goals2 assists
- E. Breivik7 goals8 assists
- K. Lonebu7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.62 for Molde. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Lillestrom and 1.54 for Molde. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.61 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Molde rate 0.87 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Molde, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.54 for Molde. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.39 for Molde.