Lillestrom vs Molde Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 2-2 Molde.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Lillestrom, 26% draw, 37% Molde — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lillestrom at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Molde
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 2L. RangerD
- 5S. FossD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 11F. ElkærD
- 21F. OttossonM
- 22D. BassiM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 20VáM
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 29Y. IbrahimajF
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 3S. OttesenD
- 26Y. PaintsilM
- 22A. PosiadałaG
- 25M. LinnesD
- 19E. HauganD
- 27F. DahlD
- 8M. LøvikD
- 11C. Zady SeryM
- 30D. DagaM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 16S. KilenM
- 20K. LonebuF
- 10E. BreivikF
- 28V. BenderM
- 17M. Møller DæhliM
- 26S. KabiniD
- 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyF
- 12P. LervikG
- 6N. ØdegårdM
- 33B. RisaD
- 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
- 43Jonathan FugelsnesF
Form going into Lillestrom vs Molde
Lillestrom
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
Molde
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Aalesund19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
- W3-2Tromso16 August 2026
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lillestrom had three goals or more.
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lillestrom | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 | Molde | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 44 | +20 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Molde
- 6 April 2026Molde 0–1 LillestromEliteserien
- 6 October 2024Lillestrom 1–2 MoldeNM Cupen
- 11 August 2024Lillestrom 1–2 MoldeEliteserien
- 7 July 2024Molde 3–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 12 November 2023Molde 4–0 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Molde
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá85
Molde
GoalsAssists
- K. Lonebu152
- E. Breivik1010
- E. Hestad82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lillestrom and Molde drew 2–2. The goals: Sander Hestetun Kilen 10' for Molde, Felix Vá 16' for Lillestrom, Emil Breivik 26' for Molde, Sander Moen Foss 87' for Lillestrom. On expected goals it finished 1.67–2.97.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lillestrom a 19.1% chance to finish in the top four: 29.5% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 9.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.7%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
For Molde the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 49.1% going in: 62.4% after a win, 47.5% after a draw, 36.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 47.5%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Lillestrom v Molde has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 26% / 37%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Lillestrom win37%▲ +1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Molde win37%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.