Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Fredrikstad, 27% draw, 28% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fredrikstad at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Line-ups
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 38I. AmundsenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 5S. RafnD
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 12U. FredriksenD
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 29G. WessehM
- 11L. WestF
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 24L. OwusuM
- 87L. ØyG
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 2M. LodeD
- 21A. HiimD
- 10S. SørliM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 6A. SherM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 11D. KarlsbakkF
- 22V. HalvorsenF
- 18Bop GueyeM
- 5L. HøylandD
- 1J. PrytsG
- 33A. NibeM
- 15M. OpokuM
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 24S. RostedD
- 32E. WichneD
- 17N. WilliamsM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Fredrikstad
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 29 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 9 May 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 8 March 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen
- 8 November 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 1 June 2025Fredrikstad 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 28 September 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
GoalsAssists
- D. Karlsbakk71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fredrikstad at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Max Nilsson 19' for Fredrikstad, Olaus Jair Skarsem 28' for Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How the call on Fredrikstad v Sarpsborg 08 FF has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Fredrikstad's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Fredrikstad win45%▲ +4
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Sarpsborg 08 FF win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.