Fredrikstad
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Fredrikstad, 29% draw, 29% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.61, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fredrikstad at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Line-ups
- 77M. BørsheimG
- 38I. AmundsenD
- 4F. HolméD
- 28S. OwusuD
- 16D. EidM
- 6S. Leach HolmM
- 14M. NilssonM
- 13S. SørløkkM
- 7B. ThoresenF
- 23H. SkogvoldF
- 18B. FiabemaF
- 5S. RafnD
- 30J. TorkildsenG
- 12U. FredriksenD
- 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
- 29G. WessehM
- 11L. WestF
- 21J. JezierskiM
- 9S. LaghzaouiM
- 24L. OwusuM
- 87L. ØyG
- 12C. NiyukuriD
- 4B. UtvikD
- 2M. LodeD
- 21A. HiimD
- 10S. SørliM
- 8S. ChristiansenM
- 6A. SherM
- 77O. SkarsemM
- 11D. KarlsbakkF
- 22V. HalvorsenF
- 18Bop GueyeM
- 5L. HøylandD
- 1J. PrytsG
- 33A. NibeM
- 15M. OpokuM
- 20P. ReinhardsenD
- 24S. RostedD
- 32E. WichneD
- 17N. WilliamsM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Fredrikstad
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
- W4-1away to Lillestrom30 August 2026
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D2-2Valerenga6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso30 August 2026
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 13 September 2026Fredrikstad 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 9 May 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 8 March 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen
- 8 November 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 1 June 2025Fredrikstad 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 28 September 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D. Karlsbakk6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.61 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.11 for Sarpsborg 08 FF; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Max Nilsson 19' (Fredrikstad), Olaus Jair Skarsem 28' (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fredrikstad the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 1.11 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.39 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.