Malmo FF
vs
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Malmo FF 4-1 Orgryte IS.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Malmo FF, 31% draw, 28% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.34, Orgryte IS 0.88.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malmo FF at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS
Line-ups
- 1R. OlsenG
- 17J. Stryger LarsenD
- 2S. GregersenD
- 44M. PålssonD
- 25BusanelloD
- 40K. BusuladžićM
- 7O. RosengrenM
- 37A. SkogmarM
- 47Theodor LundberghM
- 32D. GuðjohnsenF
- 45A. HoogF
- 39Isaac AssibuF
- 27J. DahlinG
- 6Y. KarabelyovM
- 4B. KurtulusD
- 15Mayckel LahdoF
- 28J. MilosavljeviÄM
- 23N. Åstrand JohnD
- 42V. JeppssonM
- 44H. GustafssonG
- 18A. AnderssonD
- 33S. LagerlundD
- 6M. DyrestamD
- 5C. StyffeD
- 14D. PaulsonD
- 17W. HofvanderM
- 23O. Parker-PriceM
- 8B. LaturnusM
- 22T. SanaM
- 32Viktor EkblomF
- 19A. AndreassonD
- 16H. DahlqvistD
- 29Marlon EbietomereD
- 25J. HammarD
- 2M. ParkerD
- 34A. RahmG
- 7C. VindehallM
- 11David ObouF
- 3J. AzulayD
Form going into Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS
Malmo FF
- D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026
- L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026
Orgryte IS
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg30 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
- L1-3away to IF Brommapojkarna16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Malmo FF | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 31 | +6 | 33 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 47 | -23 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS
- 5 April 2026Orgryte IS 1–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Malmo FF and Orgryte IS
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.34 goals for Malmo FF and 0.88 for Orgryte IS; the game produced 4 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jovan Milosavljević 58' (Malmo FF), Otto Rosengren 71' (Malmo FF), Tobias Sana 82' (Orgryte IS), Bleon Kurtulus 90' (Malmo FF), Owen Parker Price 90' (Malmo FF).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Malmo FF against 0.88 for Orgryte IS. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.61 for Orgryte IS.