Ham-Kam
vs
Molde
Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Ham-Kam 1-5 Molde.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Ham-Kam, 29% draw, 40% Molde — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.16, Molde 1.47.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ham-Kam vs Molde
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Molde at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ham-Kam vs Molde
Line-ups
- 12M. SandbergG
- 22S. NilsenD
- 2M. GjoneD
- 23F. SjølstadD
- 3E. Amundsen-DayD
- 7V. JónssonD
- 8M. JohnsgårdM
- 14L. MaresM
- 6W. Osnes-RingenM
- 28David BenjaminF
- 11M. OfkirF
- 24D. Al-SaedF
- 5A. AndresenD
- 29B. IsufiM
- 26P. MetcalfeM
- 10L. MettlerM
- 18Duarte MoreiraF
- 13S. ØstraatG
- 16A. TrondsenM
- 19H. UdahlF
- 22A. PosiadałaG
- 8M. LøvikD
- 6N. ØdegårdD
- 33B. RisaD
- 26S. KabiniD
- 10E. BreivikM
- 30D. DagaM
- 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 16S. KilenM
- 9J. AbdulaiF
- 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
- 20K. LonebuF
- 25M. LinnesD
- 12P. LervikG
- 11C. Zady SeryF
- 27F. DahlD
- 17M. Møller DæhliM
- 28V. BenderM
- 45N. L. ByeD
Form going into Ham-Kam vs Molde
Ham-Kam
- L0-4away to Rosenborg5 September 2026
- D2-2Kristiansund BK30 August 2026
- L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
- D1-1Aalesund9 August 2026
Molde
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
- W3-2Tromso16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 |
| 3 | Molde | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Molde
- 13 September 2026Ham-Kam 1–5 MoldeEliteserien
- 12 April 2026Molde 4–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 9 August 2025Molde 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 25 May 2025Ham-Kam 2–1 MoldeEliteserien
- 25 August 2024Molde 3–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 7 April 2024Ham-Kam 0–1 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Ham-Kam and Molde
Ham-Kam
- M. Alassane Niang6 goals
Molde
- E. Hestad8 goals2 assists
- E. Breivik7 goals7 assists
- Trent Toure Kone Doherty6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.16 goals for Ham-Kam and 1.47 for Molde; the game produced 1 and 5.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jalal Abdullai 5' (Molde), Mohamed Ofkir 46' (Ham-Kam), Trent Kone-Doherty 56' (Molde), Trent Kone-Doherty 58' (Molde), Trent Kone-Doherty 84' (Molde), Kristian Lonebu 90' (Molde).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Molde the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ham-Kam against 1.47 for Molde. Ham-Kam's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.23 for Molde.