KFUM Oslo
vs
Aalesund
Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: KFUM Oslo 2-1 Aalesund.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% KFUM Oslo, 28% draw, 29% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: KFUM Oslo 1.67, Aalesund 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KFUM Oslo at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund
Line-ups
- 1E. ØdegaardG
- 24H. RøstenD
- 5F. BerglieD
- 13B. SkaretD
- 14H. HosethM
- 9M. VinjorM
- 19E. SaunesM
- 16J. HjorthM
- 42D. HicksonF
- 22B. KristensenF
- 10B. NjieF
- 11O. VistedM
- 23M. EikremM
- 17J. GonstadF
- 25H. JensenG
- 33A. NouriD
- 2D. SchneiderD
- 21S. SjøkvistD
- 8B. TobiassenM
- 18R. VingeF
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 7K. NessøD
- 2M. AndresenD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 3Ó. GuðmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. ChristensenM
- 18E. HagenM
- 19S. KartumM
- 8I. SkotheimF
- 27H. M. ReedF
- 15E. OsenbrochM
- 23S. VecchiaM
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 16J. ØrsahlD
- 4S. HaramD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 38T. LeikangerM
Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund
KFUM Oslo
- L0-2away to Molde6 September 2026
- L1-4away to Start30 August 2026
- D1-1Lillestrom15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sandefjord7 August 2026
Aalesund
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 22 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund
- 13 September 2026KFUM Oslo 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 12 April 2026Aalesund 2–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 29 October 2021KFUM Oslo 2–4 Aalesund1. Division
- 23 May 2021Aalesund 1–0 KFUM Oslo1. Division
- 18 September 2019Aalesund 2–1 KFUM Oslo1. Division
- 21 July 2019KFUM Oslo 2–4 Aalesund1. Division
Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Aalesund
KFUM Oslo
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Aalesund
- M. Christensen7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.67 goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.19 for Aalesund; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Bilal Njie 10' (KFUM Oslo), Marcus Reed 39' (Aalesund), Hakon Helland Hoseth 45' (KFUM Oslo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KFUM Oslo the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for KFUM Oslo against 1.19 for Aalesund. KFUM Oslo's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.56 for Aalesund.