Regular Season - 21 · 13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Viking vs Kristiansund BK Eliteserien prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Full time8 1

Final score: Viking 8-1 Kristiansund BK.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Viking, 26% draw, 23% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Viking 2.09, Kristiansund BK 1.05.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Viking vs Kristiansund BK

57%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 10%2-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Viking at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking99%Draw1%Kristiansund BK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Peter Christiansen
4'
Henrik Heggheimassist: Peter Christiansen
6'
Kristoffer Haugenassist: Erik Botheim
20'
Erik Botheimassist: Zlatko Tripić
29'
Erik Botheimassist: Zlatko Tripić
45+1'
45+4'
Leander Alvheimassist: Zymer Bytyqi
45'
🔁John Kitolanoout: Frederik Flex
45'
🔁Julius Mar Juliusson out: David Tufekcic
45'
🔁Heine Gikling Brusethout: Wilfred George Igor
Henrik Heggheim
53'
Erik Botheim (pen)
54'
Henrik Bjørdal
58'
🔁Kristoffer Askildsenout: Tobias Moi
64'
🔁Erik Botheimout: Simen Kvia Egeskog
64'
🔁Joe Bellout: Niklas Fuglestad
64'
66'
🔁Zymer Bytyqiout: Adrian Kurd Rønning
🔁Zlatko Tripićout: Amin Cosic
68'
🔁Peter Christiansenout: Romano Postema
73'
76'
🔁Gustav Ørsøe Christensenout: Tobias Hammer Svendsen
79'
Jesper Isaksen
Niklas Fuglestadassist: Romano Postema
82'
Simen Kvia Egeskogassist: Henrik Bjørdal
90+1'

Match stats — Viking vs Kristiansund BK

60%Possession40%
28Shots12
13On target2
7Corners5

Line-ups

Viking 4-3-3
  • 1A. ØstbøG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 25H. FalchenerD
  • 28K. HaugenD
  • 16H. BjørdalM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 7K. AskildsenM
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
  • 22E. BotheimF
  • 10Z. TripićF
Substitutes
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 19A. CosicF
  • 30Ľ. BelkoG
  • 24Vetle AuklendD
  • 2H. HaugenD
  • 3V. VevatneD
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 11R. PostemaF
Coach: B. Aarsheim
Kristiansund BK 4-3-3
  • 1M. LansingG
  • 59M. ElviusD
  • 4J. JúlíussonD
  • 17M. WilliamsenD
  • 25J. KitolanoD
  • 7S. SvendsenM
  • 10H. BrusethM
  • 6J. IsaksenM
  • 24G. ChristensenF
  • 19L. AlvheimF
  • 11Z. BytyqiF
Substitutes
  • 23T. SvendsenM
  • 22H. HaugenD
  • 20W. IgorM
  • 27A. RønningF
  • 14S. SkeideM
  • 5D. UlvestadD
  • 12A. SætherG
  • 3F. FlexD
  • 16D. TufekcicM
Coach: A. Skiri

Form going into Viking vs Kristiansund BK

Viking

  • D1-1away to Sandefjord4 September 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
  • W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026

Kristiansund BK

  • W2-0Tromso6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Ham-Kam30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Fredrikstad16 August 2026
  • W2-1Molde9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Viking2015235120+3147
14Kristiansund BK2054112037-1719

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viking vs Kristiansund BK

  • 13 September 2026Viking 8–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 24 May 2026Kristiansund BK 1–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 25 May 2025Kristiansund BK 0–1 VikingEliteserien
  • 10 April 2025Viking 3–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 7 March 2025Viking 5–2 Kristiansund BKFriendlies Clubs
  • 10 November 2024Kristiansund BK 0–1 VikingEliteserien

Leading scorers: Viking and Kristiansund BK

Viking

  • P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
  • Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists

Kristiansund BK

  • L. Alvheim10 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.09 goals for Viking and 1.05 for Kristiansund BK; the game produced 8 and 1.

A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Peter Christiansen 4' (Viking), Henrik Heggheim 6' (Viking), Kristoffer Haugen 20' (Viking), Erik Botheim 29' (Viking), Erik Botheim 45' (Viking), Leander Alvheim 45' (Kristiansund BK), Henrik Bjørdal 58' (Viking), Niklas Fuglestad 82' (Viking), Simen Kvia Egeskog 90' (Viking).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Viking the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Viking against 1.05 for Kristiansund BK. Viking's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.46 for Kristiansund BK.