Regular Season - 21 · 13 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Start vs Brann Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansand
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Start 2-0 Brann.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Start, 29% draw, 26% Brann — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Start 1.62, Brann 0.96.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Start vs Brann

50%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 12%2-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Start at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Start97%Draw3%Brann0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Niklas Wassberg
26'
Leo Cornic
⚽Ousmane Diallo Toureassist: Erlend Segberg
44'
57'
🔁Bård Finneout: Neraysho Kasanwirjo
57'
🔁Niklas Wassbergout: Kristian Eriksen
🔁Nikolaos Koutsakosout: Jesper Cornelius
63'
🔁Hakon Lorentzenout: Eirik Schulze
76'
83'
🔁Joachim Soltvedtout: Vetle Winger Dragsnes
83'
🔁Ulrik Mathisenout: Julian Laegreid
86'
Neraysho Kasanwirjo
🔁Erlend Dahl Reitanout: Johan Meyer
90+3'
⚽Jesper Corneliusassist: Eirik Schulze
90+4'

Match stats — Start vs Brann

37%Possession63%
22Shots14
6On target4
9Corners8

Line-ups

Start 5-3-2
  • 45F. ManojlovićG
  • 29E. ReitanD
  • 5S. GranheimD
  • 28J. HusebøD
  • 3A. UjkaniD
  • 27O. ToureD
  • 10S. MvouéM
  • 23E. SegbergM
  • 18M. UglandM
  • 20H. LorentzenF
  • 9N. KoutsakosF
Substitutes
  • 24S. Strand-KolbjørnsenG
  • 17J. CorneliusF
  • 13S. GriesbeckM
  • 8N. JojićF
  • 4J. MeyerD
  • 15M. NordalF
  • 2F. PålerudD
  • 11E. SchulzeM
  • 35S. SamuyiwaM
Coach: A. Karadas
Brann 4-1-3-2
  • 1M. DyngelandG
  • 2L. CornicD
  • 3F. KnudsenD
  • 23T. PedersenD
  • 17J. SoltvedtD
  • 18J. SørensenM
  • 11B. FinneM
  • 25N. Jensen WassbergM
  • 10K. IngasonM
  • 14U. MathisenF
  • 9N. CastroF
Substitutes
  • 20V. DragsnesD
  • 16K. EriksenM
  • 21N. KasanwirjoD
  • 39J. LægreidF
  • 12S. NilsenG
  • 15J. TorsvikD
  • 41Andreas WilhelmsenD
  • 43B. HaugenM
Coach: E. Horneland

Form going into Start vs Brann

Start

  • L0-2away to Aalesund4 September 2026
  • W4-1KFUM Oslo30 August 2026
  • L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026
  • L0-3Viking1 August 2026

Brann

  • L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
  • W3-0Ham-Kam16 August 2026
  • W3-2Rosenborg2 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Start2044122241-1916
8Brann2082103731+626

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Start vs Brann

  • 13 September 2026Start 2–0 BrannEliteserien
  • 12 July 2026Brann 2–1 StartEliteserien
  • 4 August 2022Brann 1–0 Start1. Division
  • 7 July 2022Start 0–2 Brann1. Division
  • 9 December 2020Start 1–1 BrannEliteserien
  • 19 July 2020Brann 1–1 StartEliteserien

Leading scorers: Start and Brann

Start

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Brann

  • N. Holm6 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.62 goals for Start and 0.96 for Brann; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ousmane Diallo Toure 44' (Start), Jesper Cornelius 90' (Start).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Start the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Start against 0.96 for Brann. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.38 for Brann.