Fredrikstad
vs
Bodo/Glimt
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 20% Fredrikstad, 25% draw, 55% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 0.96, Bodo/Glimt 1.75.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Fredrikstad
- W1-0Kristiansund BK16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
Bodo/Glimt
- W2-1away to Valerenga8 August 2026
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
- W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
- W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 23 |
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt
- 17 July 2026Bodo/Glimt 1–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 30 November 2025Bodo/Glimt 5–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 16 July 2025Fredrikstad 0–1 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 10 November 2024Bodo/Glimt 2–2 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 1 April 2024Fredrikstad 0–2 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 16 August 2017Bodo/Glimt 4–0 Fredrikstad1. Division
Leading scorers
Fredrikstad
No league goals recorded yet.
Bodo/Glimt
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
- A. Helmersen6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fredrikstad carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.77 for Bodo/Glimt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Fredrikstad L-L-W-W-W; Bodo/Glimt W-W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.75 for Bodo/Glimt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fredrikstad rate 0.52 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodo/Glimt rate 0.83 and 0.98.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fredrikstad a 0% chance of the title and Bodo/Glimt 76%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 1.75 for Bodo/Glimt. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.98 for Bodo/Glimt.